The calendar has now turned to December, a time of year highlighted by Christ, family, gift-giving, beautiful lights and decorations, yummy baked goods, matching PJ's, themed films and music, and so much more! It truly is the most wonderful time of the year, and the icing on the cake is it also features the home stretch of the NFL regular season.
With only 3 weeks remaining before the playoffs, the time is now for teams to make a playoff push. The races for home field advantage, division titles, and wild cards are all heating up, and it promises to be a fun finish.
So far, 7 teams have already secured playoff births (Detroit, Kansas City, Buffalo, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Houston) and only three of those have already locked up its division (Kansas City, Buffalo, Houston). There are only 9 teams that have been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention at this point (Giants, Raiders, Jaguars, Patriots, Jets, Titans, Browns, Panthers, Bears). This leaves 16 teams left competing for 7 playoff spots. Three teams have already fired head coaches (Bears, Saints, Jets) but there are several others on the hot seat that may not survive the end of the season.
Normally I do a few power rankings throughout each season, but have yet to do so this season. But alas, no time like the present! We'll rank the teams from 32 to 1 and separate the pretenders from the contenders and sort them into tiers along the way.
Before diving in, it's worth taking a quick glance at the current standings. Recall that there are two conferences, AFC and NFC. For each conference, the 4 division winners will make the playoffs and be the top 4 seeds and host at least 1 playoff game. The top overall seed gets a first-round bye and home field advantage up until the Super Bowl. Additionally, the 3 best non-division winners from each conference get into the playoffs as well as the "wild cards" and will be seeded 5, 6, and 7 and will play road playoff games in round 1 against teams who won their divisions.
Current Standings:
AFC
AFC East
1. Buffalo 11-3
2. Miami 6-8
3. New York Jets 4-10
4. New England 3-11
AFC North
1. Pittsburgh 10-4
2. Baltimore 9-5
3. Cincinnati 6-8
4. Cleveland 3-11
AFC South
1. Houston 9-5
2. Indianapolis 6-8
3. Jacksonville 3-11
4. Tennessee 3-11
AFC West
1. Kansas City 13-1
2. Denver 9-5
3. Los Angeles Chargers 8-6
4. Las Vegas 2-12
NFC
NFC East
1. Philadelphia 12-2
2. Washington 9-5
3. Dallas 6-8
4. New York Giants 2-12
NFC North
1. Detroit 12-2
2. Minnesota 12-2
3. Green Bay 10-4
4. Chicago 4-10
NFC South
1. Tampa Bay 8-6
2. Atlanta 7-7
3. New Orleans 5-9
4. Carolina 3-11
NFC West
1. Los Angeles Rams 8-6
2. Seattle 8-6
3. Arizona 7-7
4. San Francisco 6-8
Tier 1: Better Luck Next Year
#32. New York Giants
2-12; last place in NFC East
The Giants continue to be a mess of a franchise and one of the laughing stocks of the NFL. They have only made the playoffs twice since 2011, and have the worst record in the NFL in that same time span. After 6 long underwhelming years, the organization decided to finally part ways with quarterback Daniel Jones and his massively overvalued contract, and will look to find it's future quarterback in April's NFL Draft. It seems like head coach Brian Daboll is also more likely than not to get the axe, in his 3 years the team is getting worse instead of better. There's some young talent here that the roster can build around moving forward, most notably 6th overall pick Malik Nabers looks like he could be a difference maker at wide receiver if given the right quarterback. But this is a team destined for change, headlined by a new coach and new quarterback, as New York looks poised to once more tear it down and try again.
#31. Las Vegas Raiders
2-11; last place in AFC West
Antonio Pierce became the interim coach in the middle of last season following the firing of Josh McDaniels, and the team appeared to play harder and finished stronger than they started, leading to Pierce being promoted from the interim to the permanent head coach. Unfortunately for him, this year has been quite the opposite, as the Raiders are tied with the Giants for the worst record in the NFL. Star wide receiver Davante Adams caught wind early on of Vegas' underlying problems, which resulted in him using a "hamstring injury" to sit out games before being traded to the Jets. The team only has two star-caliber players, edge rusher Max Crosby and rookie tight end Brock Bowers, and the organization has tried and failed time after time to find a solution at quarterback. Pierce's future remains to be determined, but the Raiders desperately need an infusion of young talent, to the point where it may even be worth trading Crosby for a haul of draft picks to accelerate the rebuild.
#30: Jacksonville Jaguars
3-11; Last place in AFC South
This one feels a little more injury driven than lack of talent driven. I'm in no way shape or form saying the Jags would be in the playoff hunt with a healthier roster, but I do believe at bare minimum another win or two could have been in the cards. Unlike the other two, the Jaguars have a competent quarterback in Trevor Lawrence, who lacks consistency but the talent and tools are there. The Jaguars are well positioned to draft somewhere in the top 5 and with Lawrence already in place they could draft the highest rated non-quarterback prospect in the class. Add Doug Pederson's name to the list of coaches on the hot seat. Similar to Daboll, Pederson managed to get the Jaguars into the playoffs and even reached the 2nd round in year 1, but then the team had an epic collapse in the second-half of last season to miss the playoffs last year. and now they're amongst the NFL's worst teams in year 3. Pederson seemed like a great hire initially, having led the Eagles to a Super Bowl in 2018. But Jacksonville is trending in the wrong direction which spells trouble for Pederson.
#29. Tennessee Titans
3-11; 3rd place in AFC South
Another team that didn't have the highest expectations but probably hoped to be more towards the middle of the pack rather than the bottom 5. The biggest concern is it still seems unclear whether second-year QB Will Levis is the answer moving forward or no. There are occasional throws and moments that keep you interested, but not enough consistency and growth yet to make you feel fully confident. If the Titans do end up with a top-5 draft pick, conversations will be had about whether to try again for a QB, or stick it out with Levis and use the pick on a different position. Like New England, Tennessee hired a new coach last offseason and thus don't really think they are at risk of being fired after one season.
#28. New England Patriots
3-11; Last place in AFC East
This one was a little more expected than the 4 teams that came before. The Patriots hit the reset button in the offseason and decided to start fresh with a new GM, head coach, and quarterback. This is a team that's been struggling to find its identity ever since Tom Brady left cold and snowy New England for the sunshine and beaches of Tampa in 2020. This was expected to be a transition and rebuilding year and that's exactly what it has been. 3rd overall pick Drake Maye has shown flashes of potential at times as the QB of the future in New England, but there's still growth and development needed there and the team still needs to build the roster around him as well.
#27. Cleveland Browns
3-11; Last place in AFC North
3-11; Last place in AFC North
Cleveland is an interesting one due to how inconsistent they are. They have surprise wins over Baltimore and Pittsburgh but then head scratching losses to teams like the Giants and Raiders. Jameis Winston has instilled more life into the offense, but in typical Jameis fashion more turnovers as well. The Browns were a playoff team last year so this season has to be a disappointment and one where they fell far short of their goals.
#26. Carolina Panthers
3-11; Last place in NFC South
3-11; Last place in NFC South
Despite their record, the Panthers are a better team than they were last season when they were worst in the league. This year has showed some signs of life and reasons of optimism which were not present in Carolina last season. It seems like second-year QB Bryce Young actually benefitted from his mid-season demotion to the bench and came back better than before his benching. Credit to rookie head coach Dave Canales, who is showing some signs of optimism as his own, for making that tough call. There's still a ways to go when it comes to building this roster into a contender but they're a bit closer than they were a year ago.
#25. New York Jets
4-10; 3rd place in AFC East
4-10; 3rd place in AFC East
One of the biggest disappointments has to be the New York Jets. I mean that both in terms of this season but also in regards to the Aaron Rodgers experiment as a whole. It's always a risk going all-in on an aging quarterback, but the Jets had real optimism after signing the 4-time MVP and former Super Bowl champion, especially after seeing how well it worked out for Brady/Tampa in a similar situation. Unfortunately the Jets' own situation has been the polar opposite. After tearing his Achilles just 4 snaps into last season, the Jets still felt confident that with a healthy Rodgers returning to the team they could be a playoff team and even contend with the Bills for a division title, but the Jets continued their losing ways. This resulted in the firings of their head coach and GM, and Rodgers' own future seems murky as well. Expect the Jets to take a quarterback towards the top of the draft, regardless of whether Rodgers remains with the team or not.
#24. Chicago Bears
4-10; Last Place in NFC North
4-10; Last Place in NFC North
The offseason hype train was real for the Bears in the offseason after drafting Caleb Williams with the #1 overall pick. Many thought Williams would adjust quickly and that Chicago could be a playoff team, however Williams is going through his own growing pains, as most rookies do, and the Bears have the misfortune of being in the NFC North division, where the Lions, Packers, and Vikings have all been awesome. Some of this is just bad luck, it isn't their fault that the other 3 teams in their division are incredibly strong. But the reality is the Bears are falling short of their preseason expectations. Head coach Matt Eberflus was shown the door after a terrible time-management blunder on Thanksgiving Day that cost the Bears the chance to tie or win the game in the final seconds against the Lions. Chicago's coaching search will be a critical one as the Bears need to hire someone who can groom Williams and help him tap into his full potential.
#23. New Orleans Saints
5-9; 3rd place in NFC South
The Saints threw in the towel earlier in the year when they fired head coach Dennis Allen after a loss to Carolina that capped a 7 game losing streak and dropped the team to 2-7. Things got a little interesting afterwards when they won 3 out of the last 4 and pulled within 2 games of the NFC South, but a (literal) last second loss to the Commanders this weekend felt like the official nail in the coffin to their slim playoff hopes. Like Chicago, the focus now shifts to a coaching search to find a new leader in the Big Easy.
5-9; 3rd place in NFC South
The Saints threw in the towel earlier in the year when they fired head coach Dennis Allen after a loss to Carolina that capped a 7 game losing streak and dropped the team to 2-7. Things got a little interesting afterwards when they won 3 out of the last 4 and pulled within 2 games of the NFC South, but a (literal) last second loss to the Commanders this weekend felt like the official nail in the coffin to their slim playoff hopes. Like Chicago, the focus now shifts to a coaching search to find a new leader in the Big Easy.
#22. Dallas Cowboys
6-8; 3rd place in NFC East
6-8; 3rd place in NFC East
Weeks after signing a contract extension worth $240 million, Dak Prescott suffered a season ending hamstring tear, which in turn put a damper on Dallas' playoff hopes. The Cowboys were hoping to build off of last season when they won 12 games, won the division, and were the 2 seed in the NFC playoffs, but the offense has stalled out with the loss of it's quarterback and those goals won't be attainable this year. The team will certainly be better next year when Dak returns to the line up, but whether or not head coach Mike McCarthy is still along for the ride remains to be seen.
Tier 2: No Room for Error
#21. Indianapolis Colts
6-8; 2nd place in AFC South
6-8; 2nd place in AFC South
The Colts had a critical game against Denver this past weekend and had they won would have been within 1 game of the wild card, but they came up short and now those playoff hopes are fading. Indy's slim playoff hopes now require winning all of their remaining games plus help in the form of one of the current AFC wild card teams (Ravens, Broncos, Chargers) losing most or all of their remaining games. The former part is very doable considering the Colts' final 3 opponents are the Titans, Giants, and Jaguars,. But unless one of the 3 aforementioned teams stumbles down the stretch, winning out won't be enough to get the Colts in.
#20. Miami Dolphins
6-8; 2nd place in AFC East
I feel bad for Miami because I genuinely think they would have 2 or 3 more wins if Tua hadn't missed time after suffering another concussion earlier in the season, which would put them right in the wild card mix. But that's life, injuries are part of the game (the worst part), and similar to Dallas, Miami's offense just lost its explosiveness without it's QB. Miami's narrow path into the playoffs is essentially the same as the Colts', winning out and having one of the 3 teams ahead of them collapse down the stretch. It's not impossible but the odds are stacked against them.
#19. San Francisco 49ers
6-8; Last place in NFC West
After Thursday night's loss to the Rams, last year's Super Bowl runner-up is at legitimate risk for missing the playoffs entirely. To be fair, the 49ers have been decimated by injuries, probably moreso than any other team in the league. Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk are done for the season and Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and other key members have all missed time. I fully believe this is a team that would be winning its division and headed back to the playoffs if they were healthier, but luck has not been on their side in that department this season. Still, if there's one team capable of going on a run at the very end, I still believe it could be them due to their championship pedigree and the amount of talent on the roster as guys get healthier down the stretch. But their playoff hopes are basically on life-support at this point.
#18. Cincinnati Bengals
6-8; 3rd place in AFC North
6-8; 3rd place in AFC North
Cincinnati actually has a top 5 offense, in fact Joe Burrow would probably be an MVP candidate if the team had a better record, but unfortunately they refuse to play a lick of defense, and it has cost them several games. In 6 of their 8 losses they have scored 25 points or more, and 4 of those 6 they had 33 or more, which should be enough to win most weeks, but the inability to play defense is offsetting what has been a very efficient offense. The Bengals playoff hopes are basically and copy and paste of Miami and Indianapolis' own situations. They may have dug themselves a hole to deep to climb out of this season, but if Cincinnati can make some moves in the offseason to bolster their porous defense then this can be an improved team in 2025.
Tier 3: Very Much in the Playoff Hunt
#17. Atlanta Falcons
7-7; 2nd in NFC South
7-7; 2nd in NFC South
Atlanta made a big splash signing Kirk Cousins in the offseason, hoping that would be the missing piece of the puzzle that would push them atop the division and back into the playoffs. A month and a half ago that appeared to be the case, with the Falcons holding a comfortable 3 game lead in the NFC South. But a 4 game losing streak, in conjunction with a 4 game winning streak by Tampa, has the Falcons now 1 game behind the Buccaneers. The Falcons do own the tie-breaker, by virtue of their 2 head-to-head wins over Tampa, so if the two teams end up finishing with the same record then Atlanta wins the division. But for that to happen, the Falcons need to stop the bleeding and recollect themselves for the final stretch, starting with Cousins who leads the league in interceptions. Atlanta did finally get back in the win column after beating the Raiders on Monday night, but will need to keep that momentum going if they hope to leapfrog Tampa and win the NFC South.
#16. Arizona Cardinals
7-7; 3rd in NFC West
7-7; 3rd in NFC West
The NFC West is a tight cluster right now, with all 4 teams only separated by 2 games. Arizona sits only 1 game behind the Rams and Seahawks, who are tied atop the division at the moment. The Cardinals actually led this division in late November but 3 straight losses caused that lead to slip away. A win over lowly New England this past weekend allowed Arizona to finally put an end to the losing streak, and what remains is road trips to Carolina and the Rams, and then a home finale against the 49ers in the final week. The Panthers game seems like a likely win, which would bring Arizona to 8-7 entering two pivotal games against division rivals that will likely decide their fate.
#15. Seattle Seahawks
8-6; 2nd in NFC West
8-6; 2nd in NFC West
Prior to Sunday, Seattle was on a hot streak, having won it's last 4 games before the loss to Green Bay ended the winning streak. But do they have the legs to fend off their division rivals and reach the finish line? It won't be easy. Seattle's next game is against the Vikings, one of the NFL's strongest teams, and the playing status of QB Geno Smith is in question after Smith exited Sunday's game with a knee injury. Early tests suggest it's non-serious, but the time table at this point is unknown. Even if Smith plays, beating Minnesota is a tall task, but without him it's highly unlikely. The game the following week against the Bears is much more winnable, and then Seattle travels to LA to play the Rams in Week 18 in a game that could likely decide the division.
#14. Los Angeles Chargers
8-6; 2nd in AFC West
8-6; 2nd in AFC West
Jim Harbaugh continues to prove himself as a great coach who can succeed at any level. Last year he led Michigan to a national title, and this year after deciding to jump back to the NFL he has taken a Chargers team that finished 5-12 last year and has them at 8-6 and on the precipice of a playoff birth. Statistically, the Chargers have the NFL's best defense, entering this week they were only allowing just under 16 points per game, but allowing 40 to the Buccaneers was a bit of a head scratcher. A great defense can take a team a long way and keep them in just about any game, and such has been the case with the Chargers considering all but 2 of their losses are by 7 points or less. A Thursday night road test against Denver is next, which will likely play a factor in Wild Card seeding, but with the final 2 games coming against the Patriots and Raiders it seems likely that the Chargers will indeed earn one of the 3 AFC wild cards and hold off the teams chasing them.
#13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
7-6; 1st place in NFC South
Atlanta's write up segues into Tampa's own situation nicely. The Bucs battled injuries throughout the season, but persevered and now find themselves atop the division entering the home stretch. The belief was always that following the bye week, Tampa would need to win at least 6 of its final 7 to get to 10 wins and return to the playoffs. They are 4/4 so far following easy wins over the Giants and Raiders, and then a not-so easy win over Carolina where the Bucs needed to rally in the final seconds to force overtime and eventually win, followed by a surprise road win over the Chargers last weekend. Following the win in LA, Tampa's playoff chances look very strong entering their final 3 games against Dallas, New Orleans, and Carolina. As aforementioned, Tampa needs to finish at least 1 game ahead of Atlanta to win the division since the Falcons own the tiebreaker. There is also a path where the Bucs could lose their division but still get in as a wild card, seeing as the Bucs only trail the Commanders by a single game and would own the tiebreaker via their head-to-head win back in week 1.
#12. Los Angeles Rams
8-6: 2nd in NFC West
8-6: 2nd in NFC West
Many of us wrote off the Rams went they got off to a 1-4 start. Similar to Tampa, the Rams were victims of key injuries to star receivers like Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. But as the team got healthier, the Rams quietly went on a run and have now won 7 of their last 9 games, probably not so quietly anymore after the surprise victory over the Bills two weeks ago. The Rams still have multiple paths into the playoffs, they sit 1 game behind in both the division (Seahawks) and the wild card (Commanders). Adding to the intrigue, the Rams play Seattle in the final game of this season, meaning if the race remains close that game could possibly decide the division.
#11. Denver Broncos
9-5; 3rd in AFC West
9-5; 3rd in AFC West
One of the biggest surprises of 2024 has been the Denver Broncos. Almost everyone, myself included, pegged them as a bottom 5 team entering year 1 of a rebuild. Boy were we wrong. Denver currently sits at 9-5, which would be good enough for a wild card birth if the season ended today. Much of this can be attributed to the play of rookie QB Bo Nix. Some thought Nix would be a bust when the Broncos selected him 12th overall in April's draft, but Nix has silenced the doubters and been one of the best performing rookies of the season. Denver is still going to have to earn it considering their final 3 games come against the Chargers, Bengals, and Chiefs, but just winning 1 of those 3 should be enough to secure Denver a seat at the table.
#10. Washington Commanders
9-5; 2nd in NFC East
9-5; 2nd in NFC East
Like Denver, Washington is a team led by a rookie QB that's massively exceeding its preseason expectations. The Commanders were the 2nd worst team in football last year (ahead of only Carolina), and thus held the 2nd overall pick in April's NFL Draft. The Commanders used the pick on Jayden Daniels, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner from LSU, and like Nix, Daniels has adjusted quickly and taken the league by storm. The division is probably out of reach for Washington, who trails red-hot Philadelphia by 3 games, so the focus is hanging on to the final wild card spot down the stretch. If Washington does end up hanging on, it will largely be due to 3 games where they won on the final play: an overtime FG to beat the Giants in week 2 (a game the Giants probably win if their kicker did not get injured earlier in the game), a successful Hail Mary to beat the Bears in Week 9 (something that works less than 1% of the time), and a defensive stop on a potential-game winning 2 point conversion against the Saints this past weekend (a game Washington led 17-0 and ended up hanging on to by the skin of their teeth). It's fair to say luck has been on the Commanders' side this year, and all of that good fortune has resulted in a 1 game lead over Seattle for the final wild card spot. Is there enough good luck left in the tank for Washington to hang on and make the playoffs for the first time since the COVID season?
Tier 5: If the Stars Align...
#9. Houston Texans9-5; 1st in AFC South
After finishing second-to-last in the 2022-23 season, Houston took the league by storm last year when rookie QB CJ Stroud and rookie head coach DeMeco Ryans led the team to the 2nd round of the playoffs. This led to an offseason spending spree where the Texans went all in on bringing in big-name players while Stroud remained on an affordable rookie contract, most notably they traded for top Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs and Cincinnati Bengals star running back Joe Mixon. Many of us saw the Texans as a potential Super Bowl contender as a result, however Diggs tore his ACL mid-season which is a massive loss for the Texans. Houston did lock up the AFC South on Sunday, not that the other 3 teams gave them much competition, but it does guarantee the Texans a home playoff game in round 1. Unless they can leapfrog Pittsburgh, Houston will most likely be the 4 seed, meaning they'll match up with the highest ranked wild card team in round 1. There's a world where Houston could make a Super Bowl run, but without Diggs they're a notch below teams like Kansas City/Buffalo/Baltimore/Pittsburgh.
#8. Pittsburgh Steelers
10-4; 1st in AFC North
10-4; 1st in AFC North
The Steelers seem to exceed expectations every year. On paper they seemed like a middle-tier team, but here they are as one of the NFL's best teams. They've been trying to figure things out at QB ever since future hall of famer Ben Roethlisberger retired after the 2021-22 season, but Pittsburgh doubled down this offseason signing veteran Russel Wilson and trading for younger prospect Justin Fields. Both have played this year and both have contributed to Pittsburgh's success. But the Steelers are old-school and have never needed elite QB play to win games. They play a smashmouth style of playing hard-nosed defense and running the football between the trenches, a style conducive to the cold and rainy weather the city often has. It's often never pretty, but clean wins and ugly wins still count all the same, and Pittsburgh's culture has always been one of just finding a way to get the job done. The Steelers lead the Ravens by 1 game in the AFC North, and travel to Baltimore this weekend for a game with massive implications. A win essentially gives Pittsburgh the division, while a loss results in the two teams being tied at 10-5 entering the final 2 games.
#7. Green Bay Packers
10-4; 3rd place in NFC North
10-4; 3rd place in NFC North
Like the Bears, the Packers have the misery in playing in the NFL's best division. Green Bay is probably good enough to be winning a handful of the other divisions, but here in the NFC North they trail Detroit and Minnesota, and thus will have to settle for a wild card and play road games throughout the playoffs. The good news is, the Packers proved last year that they could compete with the best teams in the playoffs on the road. They marched into Dallas, who was the 2 seed last year, and blew them out of the water, and then marched into San Francisco the following week and were a defensive stop away from winning that game as well. I think they're even better this year than they were last, so they're going to be a problem for whichever higher seeded team draws them in the first round, and every round thereafter.
#6. Minnesota Vikings
12-2; 2nd in NFC North
The Vikings have also been one of the league's bigger surprises in 2024. The team moved on from Kirk Cousins after 6 seasons together, and selected Michigan QB JJ McCarthy with the 8th overall pick in the NFL Draft. It looked like McCarthy was set to take over, but the rookie tore his ACL a few weeks prior to the start of the season. Fortunately the Vikings has a contingency plan in place, when they signed ex-49ers back up Sam Darnold. The original plan was for Darnold to be a bridge option until McCarthy was ready, but after the circumstances unfolded the way they did Darnold became the full-time starter. With Darnold at the helm, the Vikings had a surprisingly successful season, only the Chiefs have a better record than Minnesota. Making things even more interesting, the Vikings now find themselves tied with Detroit atop the NFC North, by virtue of the Lions loss to the Bills this weekend. And to make it even more interesting than that, the two of them are also tied with Philadelphia for the best record in the NFC and the battle for #1 seed and the first-round bye and homefield advantage that comes with. Before Sunday it seemed like a forgone conclusion that Detroit would win the division and Minnesota would have to settle for the 5 seed, but the Lions have now cracked the door open for the Vikings and there is now a tremendous amount to play for down the stretch for Minnesota. And oh by the way, the 2 teams play in the final game of the regular season.
#5. Baltimore Ravens
9-5; 2nd in AFC North
The Ravens won't finish with a record as good as last year's, when they went 14-3 and were the top seed in the AFC, and they may not even win their division, however they are still a force to be reckoned with. Lamar Jackson is one of the most electric players in this league and can torture defenses with his legs and his arm. And this is a complete roster with playmakers on offense and a perennially solid defense., and they have a wealth of playoff experience. Every loss Baltimore has comes by 5 points or less, which include competitive losses to the Chiefs, Eagles, and Steelers, and they have a 25 point blowout of Buffalo on their resume as well. The Ravens are only 1 game behind the Steelers in the AFC North, and the 2 teams happen to play this weekend, meaning if Baltimore wins they'll be tied for first entering the final 2 games. But whether they're a division champion or a wild card, I do believe Baltimore is one of the most dangerous teams, and an incredibly hard one to beat when they play to their full potential.
Tier 6: Super Bowl Favorites
#4. Buffalo Bills
11-3; 1st in AFC East
11-3; 1st in AFC East
Some thought the Bills would take a step back after losing Stefon Diggs and other key members of the previous teams, but Josh Allen continues to be the trump-card and continues to find success no matter what the surrounding pieces are. Some thought the Dolphins or the Jets could challenge the Bills for the AFC East crown, but Buffalo continues to make it emphatically clear that they still run this division, and that they remain one of the 2 best teams in the conference. They are the only team to beat Kansas City and the two seem to always be on a collision course to meet in the playoffs. They've done so 3 times recently already, with the Chiefs winning all of them, but two of those were incredibly close and they've established quite the rivalry so why not make it a quadrilogy? The win over the Lions, whom many (including myself) perceived as the best team in the NFL before Sunday, turned a lot of heads and firmly establishes Buffalo as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. I believe the performance probably solidifies Josh Allen as the MVP as well. Buffalo will likely finish no lower than the 2 seed, and the 1 seed is still in play, especially if Patrick Mahomes' ankle injury causes him to miss time. This means Buffalo would host at least 2, and possibly 3, home playoff games. And no team appreciates home-field advantage more than Buffalo in January, with its literal snowstorms and one of the most passionate and loud fan-bases in football. Kansas City seems to always get the last laugh over Buffalo in the playoffs, but it feels like one of these years Buffalo has to get it done eventually, right? This fan base has always craved a championship, its older members still feel the sting of losing 4 straight Super Bowls in the early 90's. Perhaps this is finally the time.
#3. Philadelphia Eagles
12-2; 1st in NFC East
It's been an interesting few years in Philadelphia, they are still only 2 years removed from reaching a Super Bowl and losing to Kansas City off a last-second field goal, but last year they had an epic collapse down the stretch that led to multiple staff firings and more questions than answers. But 2024 has been more like 2 years ago than last year, with the Eagles at the top of the NFC once again. The Eagles spent big money to pry running back Saquon Barkley away from the Giants, and it has been worth every penny. Barkley has been the league's best running back and someone who can explode for a big run at any moment. This may have been the missing piece that ends up putting Philly over the top. The offense is loaded with playmakers between Saquon, QB Jalen Hurts, and wide receivers AJ Brown and Devonta Smith, and the defense is good enough to win a Super Bowl as well. Much like Buffalo and Kansas City, the Eagles and Lions seem to be destined to meet in the NFC Championship to compete for the right to go to the Super Bowl, and that game would be a complete toss-up.
#2. Kansas City Chiefs
13-1; 1st in AFC West
Say what you want about how close the majority of the games have been, but these guys are proven champions who know how to flip the switch and elevate their play to another level when its playoff time. No team has ever won 3 Super Bowls in a row, so this Chiefs team is on the verge of making history. It won't be easy, it's them against the world at this point, but as long as Mahomes is quarterbacking and Andy Reid is coaching and other key pieces like Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, Isiah Pacheco, Nick Bolton, and others remain in the fold this is a hard team to bet against. The Chiefs seemed likely to secure the 1 seed in the AFC, meaning a first round bye and home field advantage in the games leading up to the Super Bowl, but Mahomes' ankle injury is something that could crack the door open for Buffalo. How Kansas City decided to navigate the situation will be interesting, as the 1 seed is a massive advantage however making sure Mahomes is 100% healthy for playoffs has to be the top priority. After all, they proved last year they could win without a bye and homefield as they were the 3 seed and went on to win road games in Buffalo and Baltimore en route to the Super Bowl. But if they do manage to hang onto it, going on the road and winning in Arrowhead in the playoffs has been an impossible task for everyone else in the AFC recently. The Chiefs aren't just playing for another championship, they're playing to etch themselves in NFL history by doing something that has never been done. They will give everything they have to accomplish this once in a lifetime goal.
#1. Detroit Lions
12-2; 1st in AFC West
As incredible as Kansas City is, my pick to win the Super Bowl right now is the Detroit Lions. Even though they did lose this weekend I am still standing by this prediction. This feels like a team of destiny and has been the best and most dominant throughout the regular season. After endless years of losing, Detroit has finally been built into a winner and it just feels like this year either ends with a Super Bowl or a world of heartbreak from falling just short of finishing the job. Lions fans have paid their dues, and there would be something poetic about a potential Lions/Chiefs Super Bowl, pitting a proven winner against a team born to lose and dying to win. But Detroit just feels like the main character of the story right now, one who has overcome trials and tribulations and every adversity in the book, and one we are all rooting for to see have their happy ending and moment of triumph. If they can hold off Philadelphia and Minnesota, Detroit will secure the 1 seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs, and much like Buffalo and Kansas City, few stadiums get louder and more deafening than Detroit. It wouldn't surprise me if the Cheifs complete the 3-peat or the Eagles get the job done or the Bills finally reach the mountain top, but my gut right now just feels like this is Detroit's moment and they have been the most consistent and best team in all of football to this point. They would be a deserving champion and I hope for them it is finally their moment.
