Another great weekend of football is upon us! In the NFL, we have narrowed it down from 32 Super Bowl hopefuls to 8. There are 4 games this weekend, two on Saturday and two on Sunday, and a win this weekend means you are one win away from playing in the Super Bowl. So it's fair to say things are getting real. In addition to 4 NFL playoff games, the National Championship for college football will be played Monday evening in Atlanta between Ohio State and Notre Dame. Both teams were ranked outside of the top 4, so their respective runs to the title game justify the need for an expanded playoff beyond the previous 4 team format.
So today is just gonna be a quick write-up predicting the 4 NFL playoff games and the college football national title. We will go in the same order that the games are being played.
#4 Houston Texans @ #1 Kansas City Chiefs
Saturday @ 4:30
After getting the week off last week, Kansas City's true quest for a historical 3-peat starts tomorrow. Houston got here by defeating the Chargers last week 32-12 in a game where the defense set the tone with 4 interceptions.
For Houston to have any chance in this game, they are going to have to play a near-perfect mistake free game. One thing that could help their chances is if KC shows any rust from the extended time off since most of the starters haven't played a snap since Christmas day (they rested in week 18 and then were off last week with a first round bye). If it does take the Chiefs a couple possessions to knock the rust off then perhaps Houston can keep the game close early and even get out to a quick start.
I highly doubt that happens though, as Kansas City has had the first-round bye a handful of times in the Mahomes era and in every single one of them they have gone on to win in this round, many times convincingly. More often than not, the team benefits from the extra rest and extra week of preparation and comes out of the gate as if they were fired out of a cannon. If history could be any more unpleasant to the Texans, they are 0-5 in the Divisional round in their 22 year history.
There's a small path where Houston could pull an improbable upset. The defense will need to continue to be relentless and the offense needs to play a clean, mistake-free game, and if we're being honest most of Kansas City's games end up being close anyways. But my belief is that the Chiefs will flip the switch now that the playoffs are beginning and will take care of business in this round.
Chiefs 27 Texans 16
#6. Washington Commanders @ #1 Detroit Lions
Saturday @ 8:00
Much like Kansas City, I expect Detroit to benefit from the week of rest and not come out too rusty. The Lions pride themselves on being physical and they'll feed off of the energy of a raucous home crowd. I believe the experience gained last season will be beneficial as well, especially relative to Washington, who just won its first playoff game in 20 years and is led by a rookie QB.
To be fair, Jayden Daniels is no ordinary rookie. He's done and accomplished things we haven't seen from rookie QBs and he's composed well beyond his years, which will help with dealing with the raucous atmosphere. But this isn't just a QB competition. Detroit boasts a dominant offensive line and physical running game that can wear a defense down and set things up for big pass plays.
This feels like a "Super Bowl or bust" year for the Lions, whereas Washington has already greatly exceeded expectations just by being here (2nd worst team in the NFL last year). For that reason I expect Detroit to come out with a greater sense of urgency to meet those high expectations, whereas anything further for Washington is icing on the cake to an already highly successful season. You could argue that this benefits the Commanders, as the pressure is on the Lions whereas Washington is playing with house-money. But this Lions team has the experience and mindset to handle these types of situations.
I can see it being high-scoring, especially given some of the injuries to Detroit's defense, but ultimately think the Lions pull away in the 2nd half, as they did to Minnesota in a critical game two weeks ago and have done to many others this season. Unlike Kansas City, who played a plethora of one-score games, Detroit was incredibly consistent and dominant throughout the season and outscored their opponents by a league-best 222 points (an average of 2 TD per game). They will keep it rolling this week and book their ticket to the NFC Championship game.
Lions 37 Commanders 20
#4. Los Angeles Rams @ #2 Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday @ 3:00
The Rams are a great story and seem truly galvanized by the devastation happening in Los Angeles with the wildfires, and it feels like they're playing for more than just the game. The extra motivation can be a dangerous thing, but the Eagles are going to be a tall-task.
Philly is at their best when they establish the run and ride Saquon Barkley like a horse. Barkley is a generational talent at running back and the Eagles have a massive offensive line that should be able to win in the trenches against a Rams team that is small inside. The run-first attack will also be beneficial in Philadelphia's outdoor weather elements, where they're projecting cool temperatures and possible snow.
For the Rams to overcome all of this, they need to lean on the experience of QB Matt Stafford and head coach Sean McVay, as well as a young defense trying to pick up where they left off after forcing 9 sacks and 2 turnovers (including a pick-six) against 14-win Minnesota last weekend.
I do think this game is closer than people think. The Rams have had a lot of success with Stafford and McVay leading them. They have two legitimate receivers in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua and a running back who scores a lot of touchdowns in Kyren Williams. Stafford gets the ball out of his hands super quickly and that should help minimize the effect of the Eagles' talented defensive line.
But ultimately I think Philly's talent and depth wins out. The Eagles have two elite pass-catchers of their own in AJ Brown and Devonta Smith, and the compliment one another well as Brown is a physical big-bodied possession reveiver while Smith a crisp route-runner with good speed, and the offensive line and defense have been good for Philadelphia all year. As long as QB Jalen Hurts can make good decisions and take care of the football, I feel that Philadelphia will hold serve at home and set up a date with Detroit next weekend.
Eagles 24 Rams 20
#3. Baltimore Ravens @ #2 Buffalo Bills
Sunday @ 6:30
The last game of the weekend also happens to be the most exciting. This is an epic match up between two teams that absolutely could win the whole thing and either will present a great challenge to Kansas City (assuming they take care of Houston). Both QB's, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, have put together monster seasons and are front runners for the MVP award. If the winner of this game goes on to win the whole thing, this could be a legacy defining game.
The teams actually played all the way back in Week 4 in Baltimore, with Ravens stomping the Bills 35-10. The margin of victory is almost impossible to ignore, but at the same time this was such an uncharacteristic way for Buffalo to loose that it could possibly just be chalked up as a bad day. The home field advantage, plus Josh Allen, pretty much guarantees a much closer contest this time around.
Because of how much of the spotlight the 2 QB's receive, it often gets lost that both teams have star running backs as well. Derrick Henry (Baltimore) and James Cook (Buffalo) tied for the NFL lead with 16 rushing touchdowns on the season.
It feels like this is bound to be a high scoring affair with very few punts and turnovers. In true Buffalo fashion, the Sunday night forecast is calling for temperatures in the "teens" and snow showers. It may very well come down to who gets the ball last or who makes the fewest mistakes. I do feel like at least one road team will pull off a win this weekend, despite the 4 home teams having incredibly difficult places to play. This feels like the realistic choice to roll the dice on. I do believe Baltimore is the more physical and more complete team, while Buffalo is a little more dependent on Allen's star power. Baltimore has one of the better coaching staffs in the league and I do trust that they can put their heads together and develop some sort of gameplan to make things tougher on Allen and slow him down just a tad.
Both of these teams have been knocking on the door for years and have been unable to get over the hump that is the Chiefs. But only one of them will have the chance to do so this year. I think it's nearly a toss up pick, but I will cautiously pick Baltimore.
Baltimore 30 Buffalo 27
Notre Dame vs Ohio State
Monday @ 7:30
Last but not least, we get to the grand finale of the 2024-25 college football season, which features the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Both teams truly earned their way here, with each beating 3 top-10 teams en route to the title game.
For Ohio State, is seems like this group is peaking at the right time and finally playing to their full potential. The Buckeyes were always loaded with a lot of individual NFL talent, but it wasn't always cohesive and working together. But these playoffs have turned a page, and Ohio State seems to finally have figured out how to put it all together and things are humming. Perhaps the biggest turnaround has been the play of the offensive line. The Buckeyes tried several different combinations over the course of the season, but finally seem to have found the right one as they have only allowed 2 sacks over the 3 playoff games. They're winning the battle on the other side as well as the defense has generated 16 sacks against their opponents in that same 3-game span.
Notre Dame is peaking at the right time as well. The Irish are at their best when they run the ball and play sound defense. Doing so Monday night would help them control the clock and keep Ohio State's more explosive offense on the sideline. Defensively they have to be able to generate pressure on Buckeyes QB Will Howard. Howard can pick defenses apart when given a clean pocket and time to throw, but he's more susceptible to mistakes and errant throws when teams can generate pressure.
Notre Dame can keep this close if it sticks to it's tried and true gameplans. But ultimately, Ohio State's firepower, explosiveness, and collection of NFL talent has been too much to handle thus far for all of its playoff opponents, and I'm just not confident that Notre Dame can either keep up or suppress it altogether.
Ohio State 30 Notre Dame 20
