Each Team's 2023-24 Grade

 

     As we put a bow on the 2023-24 season, let's give each team a letter grade. These grades are based on a combination of preseason expectations and actual performance. I'm more of a bell-curve grader, meaning a "C" is considered average. But the actual distribution can be found below:

A- 7

B- 5

C- 12

D- 5

F- 3

+'s and -'s are used but for the list above we are grouping altogether. 

Arizona Cardinals: C

The team entered the year with low expectations in a transition year with a new GM and new head coach and it's starting QB still recovering from an ACL tear until mid-season. But it found some positive momentum late in the season once they got Kyler Murray back from the aforementioned injury. They should be better next year.

Atlanta Falcons: D-

Some thought they may be able to push for the division title but they never solved their QB situation and never properly utilized their other offensive weapons. That resulted in a losing record and the firing of head coach Arthur Smith.

Baltimore Ravens: A-

It can't be an A, given the team had a complete dud in it's final game which caused their season to end just short of the Super Bowl. But they still finished with the best record in football and were the league's most complete and dominant team for the majority of the season.

Buffalo Bills: B

After a slow start, they did really well to rally down the stretch and make the playoffs. But to have another season end in the Divisional Round and at the hands of the Chiefs on their home turf is a disappointment for a team with a "Super Bowl or bust" mentality. 

Carolina Panthers: F

Absolute mess of a season, finishing as the worst team in football, firing their coach mid season, and their owner spilling drinks on opposing fans. To make matters worse, this team doesn't even have its first round pick (which would have been #1 overall) because it traded it away to Chicago last season to trade up for rookie QB Bryce Young.

Chicago Bears: C+

Dug itself a hole early that ultimately it could not get out of, but they did finish much stronger than they started and have two high first round picks, including the #1 overall pick.

Cincinnati Bengals: B-

The fact that they still finished with a winning record despite a bad start and losing Joe Burrow mid season is a victory in itself and speaks to the talent of the team. They'll have Super Bowl aspirations next year with Burrow back healthy.

Cleveland Browns: B+

To go through as many injuries as they did, especially to quarterbacks, and still win 11 games and make playoffs is an incredible feat and testament to how good the defense and coaching is. Unfortunately they laid an egg once they got their though.

Dallas Cowboys: C-

Because of it's perennial high expectations, this team was always going to be judged by how it's season ended. Unfortunately for them, it was another epic playoff collapse to a team they should have beaten.

Denver Broncos: C-

They had a nice little win streak mid season to play themselves back into the mix, but finished with a losing record and no playoffs. QB Russell Wilson has been a massive disappointment after the team paid a premium for him acquiring him from Seattle and signing him to an extremely lucrative contract and will likely get released or traded.

Detroit Lions: A

The way it ended will haunt them for awhile, but that shouldn't take away from the fact that this was their best season in most of our lifetimes and that things are moving in the right direction.

Green Bay Packers: A-

Uncertainty loomed for them after parting ways with Aaron Rodgers but the second half of the season proved that they're in good hands with Jordan Love. Beat the brakes off of the 2nd best team in the conference in the playoffs (Dallas) and nearly took out San Fran on the road. 

Houston Texans: A

Maybe the brightest future of any team on the list. CJ Stroud had one of the best rookie seasons we have ever seen from a QB, and Linebacker Will Anderson won defensive rookie of the year as well, and first year coach DeMeco Ryans led this team to the second round of the playoffs. They will only get better with experience.

Indianapolis Colts: B-

The season could have unraveled on them early when rookie QB and 4th overall pick Anthony Richardson suffered a season ending injury in mid October and all-pro running back Jonathan Taylor missing the first 5 weeks, but first year head coach Shane Steichen found a way to keep the team afloat until the final week.

Jacksonville Jaguars: D

 Absolute choke down the stretch from a team that had Super Bowl aspirations to lose 5 of it's final 6 games and miss the playoffs altogether. The reason it's not an F is because I believe Trevor Lawrence was never truly healthy but continually tried playing through pain all year long. They could have a bounce back 2024-25 season with him healthy.

Kansas City Chiefs: A+

Even in a down year, found a way to tap into their Championship DNA and win the games when it mattered most and became the league's first repeat champions since the '05 Patriots.

Las Vegas Raiders: C+

The team started poorly and fired Josh McDaniels midseason, but then played significantly better when Antonio Pierce took over as the interim head coach. Will be interesting to see how the team performs with Pierce leading the way for a full season.

Los Angeles Chargers: F

Justin Herbert is too talented of a QB for the team to lose this many games, which resulted in Brandon Staley being fired mid-season. With Jim Harbaugh leaving Michigan after winning a National Title to return to the NFL and coach LA, this is an interesting team to follow next season.

Los Angeles Rams: B+

Many people thought the competitive window was closing for them with the aging core, but the team still made the playoffs and took the Lions to the wire on the road. 

Miami Dolphins: C+

A tough one to grade because they had a red hot start to the season before floundering down the stretch. Some of that was injuries piling up, but the questions remain if the Dolphins have the toughness to compete with the league's elite teams.

Minnesota Vikings: C

Not giving them a failing grade because they had horrendous luck with injuries, specifically to Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson. It wasn't the season they hoped for but no team could have gone far with the amount of significant injuries Minnesota suffered.

New England Patriots: F

Things have been slowly declining there since Tom Brady's departure and this was the rock bottom year. It's time for the organization to start fresh with a new coaching staff, QB, and roster changes.

New Orleans Saints: C+

Entered the season as the favorites to win the NFC South but ultimately couldn't dethrone Tampa. But still finished with a winning record and were in the playoff race until the final week.

New York Giants: C-

Another lenient grade due to injuries but couldn't build off of last year's surprise playoff appearance. Getting healthy again along with a high draft pick should do them some good.

New York Jets: C-

The season was over before it barely started when Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles on just his 4th ever snap as a New York Jet. The team managed to hang around for half a season but could never overcome the poor QB play and fell out of the race in the second half.

 Philadelphia Eagles: D-

  I won't give an F to a playoff/double digit win team, but this team collapsed so badly that it has to be close. It remains a mystery how a team that started 10-1 fell off a cliff down the stretch and they'll spend the offseason reflecting on what happened and how to fix moving forward.

Pittsburgh Steelers: C

Found a way to make the playoffs despite rotating through a few different QBs but that felt like their ceiling and they never really felt like a threat to go any further.

San Francisco 49ers: A

Being so close will sting for awhile but still won the NFC and reached the big game and nearly won it.

Seattle Seahawks: C+

Similar to the Giants, many thought they would build off of last year's surprise trip to the playoffs, but the team fell just short of getting back there.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: A-

Much doubt was cast on this group with many experts predicting them to be a bottom 5 team, but the Bucs proved that even without Tom Brady they still run the division and can be an annual playoff team. Baker Mayfield and Tampa proved to be a good marriage for both sides and gives reason for optimism moving forward.

Tennessee Titans: D

Many thought this would be a bounce back year for them with key players healthy again and the expectation was they would be a top 2 team in the AFC South, but the Titans finished last in their division and fired their head coach and will probably begin a rebuild this offseason.

Washington Commanders: D+

They gave up halfway through the season and moved talented players right before the trade deadline to receive draft capital but at least they were self-aware of their flaws and positioned themselves better for the future while other bad teams remained in denial and kept trying to compete with what they had.

Ranking Team Names

 

     

     Those who listen to the New Heights podcast are aware that the Kelce brothers are currently conducting a "Best Team Name" bracket challenge, where listeners can vote for their favorites and submit a bracket. It had me inspired to reflect on and rank them as well. I have always found the etymology of a team name interesting and how it relates to the city the team represents. So here is an honest and unbiased personal ranking of each NFL team name from 32 to 1.

Tier 1: Bad

#32. Houston Texans

Ranking it dead last for redundancy and lack of creativity. We already know they are Texans due to the fact that they are in Houston. For what it's worth I think the logo and color scheme are awesome, just not the name.

#31. Cleveland Browns

It's named after a former owner, which comes off as narcissistic, and creates further confusion that the team is "Browns" yet the helmets are Orange. Arguably the most bland team name/logo combinations in the league.

Tier 2: Fine, but generic

#30. Arizona Cardinals

Fun fact, they used to be in St. Louis, where there was (and still is) and baseball team on the same name. Rather than change their name, the team moved out west. There are 5 teams named after birds and to me this is the weakest.

#29. Atlanta Falcons
It's fine I guess, it's a cool bird of prey but it's generic and the name has no connection to the city and was chosen from a "name-the-team" contest for fans to write and submit essays with their preference. The Falcon in the shape of an "F" is a cool logo though.

#28. Carolina Panthers
There's 4 teams named after big cats and to me this is the weakest, largely because there is an NHL team in Florida with the same name, which makes much more sense than Carolina Panthers. The owner named the team and just wanted something mean and ferocious.

#27. Jacksonville Jaguars
Another "name-the-team" fan contest winner. There are no Jaguars roaming around Jacksonville, but it's a cooler cat than a Panther and it has the alliteration going for it. Also at the time the oldest living Jaguar in the US resided at the Jacksonville zoo.

#26. Detroit Lions
Same as 28 and 27 but more iconic and they cite the parallel of wanting the team to be "Kings of the NFL" since the Lion is known as the king of the jungle. They also went with Lions to compliment the Tigers, Detroit's baseball team.

#25. Chicago Bears
Iconic and historic but not a unique or creative name and bears can be found in many different parts of the country. Like Detroit, another team name rooted from it's local baseball affiliate, the Chicago Cubs. But referring to them as "Da Bears" has become a staple.

Tier 3: Mid

#24. Kansas City Chiefs
There's so many collegiate and pro teams that also use the Native American themed nicknames like Seminoles, Blackhawks, Braves as well as teams that were forced to change their names such as Redskins and Indians.

#23. Tennessee Titans

Outside of the Parthenon replica, there's really not much connecting Tennessee and Ancient Greece. With the team based in Nashville, this seems like a missed opportunity to find a name better suited to its country and honky-tonk vibes. 

#22. Los Angeles Rams
It's not bad, which is why they kept it when moving from St. Louis to Los Angeles, but feels like it was better suited for a mountain based team like Denver.

#21. New York Jets

The aviation theme is cool but doesn't have much to do with the city, other than the fact that the team originally played in a stadium next to LaGuardia Airport. But at least the New York teams have this cool rhyming combination of Jets, Mets, & Nets.

#20. Los Angeles Chargers

Despite the logo and the nickname "Bolts" the team name actually has nothing to do with lightning strikes or electricity. According to Wikipedia, the GM at the time picked the name because ""I liked it because they were yelling 'charge' and sounding the bugle at Dodgers Stadium and at USC games." Still, it gets points for its uniqueness.

#19. Indianapolis Colts

This would rank way higher if the team was never moved from Baltimore, as this was a nod to breeding thoroughbreds and the Preakness Stakes, one of the 3 horse races that are a part of the Triple Crown along with the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. But the relocation makes this name feel out of place.

Tier 4: Good

#18. Washington Commanders

It gets a lot of unnecessary hate from recency bias of being the newest name change, but it leans into the cities presidential theme of Commander In Chief, as well as George Washington himself, whom the city is named after, being the commander of the Continental Army. 

#17. Cincinnati Bengals

By far the best of the Big Cat nicknames, largely because they took the extra step of not just naming themselves "Tigers" but differentiating themselves with a specific and cool-sounding species. And it served as the basis for the cool orange and black striped helmets. The only knock is the same as the other Big Cats, there are no tigers running rampant around Cincinnati. 

#16. New York Giants

Some think it's bad because they incorrectly think it is meant to be another mythological based name like "Titans", and others cite the baseball team of the same name from San Francisco which came much earlier. But "Giants" refers to New York's massive skyscrapers and buildings that tower over the city. Thus an appropriate name for a team from the nation's largest and busiest city.

#15. Dallas Cowboys

Hate on them all you want but it's a perfect, region-specific name for a Texas team and their old timey atmosphere of cattle, ranchers, saloons, tumbleweeds, standoffs, rodeos, lassos, and the wild wild west. And it's super iconic.

#14. Denver Broncos

This one also comes from a "name-the-team" fan contest, but in this case the name does typify the West and is a good a fit for a Colorado based team. Also a stronger horse name than "Colt" as Broncos are tough and fast.  

#13. Las Vegas Raiders

This one is totally personal preference and has no connection to Las Vegas (or its former location of Oakland) but just a cool, bad-ass name for a football team.

Tier V: Top Notch

#12. Baltimore Ravens

It's actually a nod to Edgar Allen Poe's most famous tale, which was authored in Baltimore where Poe resided. 

#11. Buffalo Bills

They are actually names after the famous Western frontiersman "Buffalo Bill" who hunted Bison, which shouldn't work for an Eastern city. But it connects the animal to the city name and "Buffalo Bills" just rolls off the tongue so nicely. 

#10. Seattle Seahawks

Another public naming contest winner but this one just fit so well. Bird of prey, alliteration, and a name and color scheme that embodied the Pacific Northwest. And Seahawk is another name for "Osprey", which are common to Seattle.

#9 Miami Dolphins

An absolute perfect mascot and color scheme for a tropical, oceanfront city with beaches, boating, and warm weather year round. 

Tier VI: Any of these could be #1

#8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

A reference to the legendary (and maybe fictional?) Spanish pirate Jose Gaspar, who often raided cities along the Gulf of Mexico, as well as Gasparilla, Tampa's pirate parade version of Mardi Gras. Tampa is most definitely a pirate town, and "Buccaneer" is a stronger swashbuckling scallywag nickname than "Raider", especially for a city actually on the coast. And the in-stadium Pirate ship is bad-ass.

#7 New England Patriots

Whether it was the Massachusetts Bay Colony, or Paul Revere, or Sam Adams, or dumping tea into the harbor to protest taxation without representation, the name perfectly embodies the spirit of the city and it's prominent roles in America's origins and winning its independence from Britain.

#6 New Orleans Saints

A nod to "When the Saints Go Marching In", the city's unofficial theme song written by New Orleans native Louie Armstrong, as well as the largely Catholic area (all the counties are named after Saints) and the team being born on All Saints Day. The name perfectly unites the city's Jazz influence and most recognizable tune with its religious roots. The "Fleur-De-Lis" symbol also is a good nod to the city's French roots.

#5 Philadelphia Eagles

The Bald Eagle symbolizes the United States and while it may not be the capital, Philadelphia played a pivotal role in US History as the signing place of the Declaration of Independence, home to the Liberty Bell, and a regular meeting place for the Founding Fathers who discussed, debated, and ultimately helped form a new country.

#4 San Francisco 49ers

A historical nod to the California Gold Rush of 1849 and the "Miner Miner 49ers", which also explains the gold helmets. The teams primary colors, Gold and Red, are also a nod to their most recognizable landmark, the Golden Gate Bridge, and the name was also a metaphor as to how to organization was hoping to strike gold of its own, which it did by winning 5 Super Bowls.

#3 Minnesota Vikings

The name has good regional ties as it pays homage to Scandinavians who migrated to Minnesota and in Norse mythology Vikings were some of the toughest warriors that ever walked the earth. The horned helmets are like those actually worn by the warriors and Minnesota's icy climate is also like that of what the Scandinavians sailed in, and the blowhorn heard during games is a fun touch as well.

#2 Green Bay Packers

Named after the Acme Meat Packing Company, who originally sponsored the team, and has stood the test of the time as one of the earliest roots of professional football. There's something hard working and honest about it, and it's a great fit for the only NFL team that is owned by the fans and people of Green Bay. 

#1 Pittsburgh Steelers

It's cool and bad-ass sounding but also a great representation how liked Pittsburgh was to steel manufacturing. The team identity also typifies the toughness and resiliency of the hard working class of Western Pennsylvania, priding themselves on hard-nosed defense, running the football, and fighting through the cold and often ugly weather.  

NFL Conference Championship Game Predictions

 

     And then there were 4! Only 3 games remain in the 2023-24 NFL season, and after the two on Sunday have finished we will officially know the teams participating in Super Bowl LVIII. All 4 teams have been dreaming of reaching the Super Bowl since training camp began back in August, and after all the blood, sweat, and tears between then and now, each of them is a single victory away. Per usual, let's take a closer look at the 4 teams still standing.

   The Baltimore Ravens are back in the conference championship game for the first time since 2012, which also marks the last time they won the Super Bowl. The Ravens were the most dominant team of the regular season, finishing with a record of 13-4, and now only the defending champs stand in their way of returning to the Super Bowl.

     The defending champion Kansas City Chiefs are back in the conference championship game for a 6th straight season and are looking to make their 4th Super Bowl game in 6 years. The road here wasn't always pretty, but this group consistently displays championship pedigree and elevates their level of play in the playoffs when the games matter most.

     The San Francisco 49ers return to the conference championship game where their season ended last year to the Philadelphia Eagles, a game that got out of hand after Brock Purdy was knocked out of the game with an elbow injury. With Purdy now healthy, the Niners hope this time around to claim the conference championship and reach the Super Bowl.

     And finally the Detroit Lions are here, on the precipice of their first Super Bowl appearance ever. The Lions and its fans have suffered year after year but perhaps their time has finally come and their faith will finally be rewarded.

Lastly, now that we're this close, just wanted to provide a list of how many times each team remaining has won the Super Bowl.

Baltimore: 2 (2001, 2012)

Kansas City: 3 (1970, 2020, 2023)

San Francisco: 5 (1982, 1985, 1989, 1990, 1995)

Detroit: 0

     Four teams, two games, one Super Bowl match up. Let's dive into it!

2 Confidence Points - #1 San Francisco over #3 Detroit

 Detroit has been one of the best stories of the season, and this has been a special journey for them. But I am going with the 49ers, who have been knocking on the championship door for a few years now. Neither team lacks motivation, Detroit wants to do something it has never done, while San Francisco wants to right the ship after their QB was knocked out of the game last season. Some people may be lower on the 49ers after watching the 7 seed Packers nearly take them out last weekend, but the Packers were playing their best football of the season, having completely dismantled Dallas the week before, yet the 49ers found a way, and that's what championship teams do. Purdy is the player everyone wants to talk about, but the pieces around him are equally responsible for the 49ers being as good as they are and making his life easier. Christian McCaffrey is probably the best running back in the league, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are one of the best wide receiver duos in the league, George Kittle has been the second best tight end over the past several seasons behind only Travis Kelce, and the defense is loaded with elite talent from front to back. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if the Lions pulled the upset, they feel like a "Team of Destiny". But the 49ers have the more complete team, the homefield advantage, and the experience, to win the game and reach the Super Bowl.

Score Prediction: 49ers 24: Lions 20

1 Confidence Point - #1 Baltimore over #3 Kansas City

     This to me is the bigger toss up of the two games, largely due to the Chiefs' championship degree and how they thrive as underdogs. Some doubt was cast on if they were still a championship caliber team this year, but the fact that they marched into Buffalo and knocked off one of the league's hottest teams in a hostile environment shows that they are still capable. At a certain point, we have to ask ourselves if it's wise to ever bet against Mahomes, Andy Reid, and Travis Kelce in the playoffs, because these guys just consistently win games and make deep playoff runs, and the Chiefs also have the best defense they've had in years. But...we will bet against them at least once more. Baltimore has been the most complete team all season long, and nobody is more equipped to dethrone the king than they are. Lamar Jackson is going to win MVP and is playing the best football of his career and the Ravens haven't lost a game where all the starters played since November 16. What's scary is the Ravens defense might be even more dominant than the offense. The Ravens became the first defense ever to lead the league in fewest points allowed (16.5 per game), sacks (60), and turnovers (31). The Texans were unable to get a single offensive touchdown against them last week (the lone touchdown came off of a punt return) after being one of the more explosive offenses all season and hanging 45 points on the Browns the week prior. This has the chance to be an instant classic, with the quarterbacks going punch for punch, much like Mahomes v Allen was last weekend. But I do feel like someone is going to prevent the Chiefs from repeating, and Baltimore truly has been the most complete and consistent team all season long, so I'm putting my trust in them to pull this one out.

Score Prediction: Ravens 26 Chiefs 24 

Super Bowl Prediction: Baltimore Ravens vs San Francisco 49ers
  

NFL Divisional Round Predictions

 

     Wild Card Weekend is complete and we are one step closer to finding out which two teams will compete in Super Bowl LVIII. We said goodbye to 6 more teams last weekend, meaning only 8 teams still have the championship dream alive, including 2 that have never reached the Super Bowl (Detroit, Houston) and a third that has reached it but never won it (Buffalo). Before jumping into this week's games, let's briefly recap last weekend's:

     In the first game of the weekend, the Houston Texans demolished the Cleveland Browns by a score of 45-14. Cleveland was a slight favorite entering this game, but the inexperience proved to be no problem for the Texans who easily cruised to victory.

     In the second game of the weekend, the Dolphins struggled to adapt to the artic elements in Kansas City. The home team kept its Super Bowl defense alive and went on to win by a score of 26-7.

     The third game of the weekend provided the biggest upset, as the 7 seed Green Bay Packers disposed of the 2 seed Dallas Cowboys by a score of 48-32. Green Bay's present and future in the Jordan Love era continues to look bright, while Dallas' history of playoff woes and early exits, and the public scrutiny that comes with it, continues.

     The fourth game yielded the first Detroit Lions playoff victory in 32 long years, which came in dramatic fashion as the Lions held off the Rams 24-23. For Detroit, it's a step closer to reaching the Super Bowl for the first time ever in franchise history, while the Rams will have to evaluate how much longer beyond this year their veteran group can contend for titles.

     Game 5 only happened because volunteers within Bills mafia gave their time to shovel snow into the wee hours of Monday morning, after the stadium was buried following a large weekend snowstorm. The home team did not disappoint its dedicated and hard working fans, as the Bills defeated the Steelers by a score of 31-17.

     And then in the weekend's final game on Monday Night Football, the Buccaneers delivered the final blow to a floundering Eagles team. Much like Green Bay, Tampa continues to exceed expectations in it's first year removed from a future Hall of Fame QB, while Philly continues to reflect and get to the bottom of what went wrong down the stretch after the season began so well. 

     All the meanwhile, Baltimore and San Francisco enjoyed a week of rest. Both teams also rested their starters in Week 18, meaning the starters for both teams haven't played since New Years Eve.

     There are 4 games on the slate this weekend, two on Saturday and two on Sunday. So just like last week, I will assess confidence points and make a winner and score prediction for each of them:

4 Confidence Points - #1 San Francisco over #7 Green Bay

With my highest level confidence pick I am taking the well-rested 49ers to defeat the red hot Packers. What Green Bay did to Dallas should not be overlooked, a game that was even more of a blow out than the final score indicated, considering Green Bay jumped out to a 27-0 lead and Dallas added a couple late scores to make it look more competitive than what it really was. But alas, San Francisco is a veteran team with Super Bowl aspirations that doesn't have the same habit of playoff letdowns that the Cowboys do. The Packers are a young team with a bright future, but San Francisco is one of the league's most well-rounded and dominant teams. Their offense can score points in bunches and their defense can hold Green Bay to a much lower number than Dallas was able to. I think the two weeks of rest does them some good as well.

Score Prediction: 49ers 30 Packers 21

3 Confidence Points - #1 Baltimore over #4 Houston

This could almost be a copy-and-paste of the 49ers/Packers analysis: Super Bowl favorite collides with young, ahead of schedule team. CJ Stroud dazzled in his inaugural playoff start, becoming the youngest quarterback to ever win a playoff game in the Super Bowl era, and the Texans as a whole seemed unaffected by their inexperience. Baltimore finished the regular season with a record of 13-4, the best in the NFL, and probably could have gone 14-3 had it played its starters against the Steelers in Week 18. This game features two of the league's most dynamic quarterbacks: Stroud is going to win Rookie of the Year, and Lamar Jackson is going to win league MVP. But the X-factor is the talent around them, and Jackson is surrounded by more championship-caliber talent right now. Houston has already exceeded expectations by reaching this point, whereas Baltimore has bigger fish to fry. There are extremely bright days ahead for the Texans, but the Super Bowl window is open for the Ravens right now, and I think they win this one. 

Score Prediction: Ravens 27 Texans 20

2 Confidence Points - #3 Detroit over #4 Tampa Bay

One of the things that makes this match up super intriguing is the fact that it features two quarterbacks who were former #1 overall picks, but whose original teams gave up on them, but who then found new homes they could thrive in when given a second chance. Jared Goff is having a career renaissance since joining Detroit two years ago while Baker Mayfield had the best season of his career in his first year in Tampa. The Lions are fresh off of ending a 32 year playoff win drought in emotional and dramatic fashion, and a large part of this game hinges on whether or not they can compartmentalize those emotions and quickly turn around and direct the focus to their round 2 opponent. For Tampa, they have already exceeded expectations getting this far in the first year of the post-Tom-Brady era, but that shouldn't make them satisfied or complacent. Even though the Bucs enter as the underdog, their roster still includes a great deal of championship experience, whereas the majority of Detroit's roster is in uncharted territory. And it's also worth mentioning that Tampa's defense has only allowed 9 points over the last 8 quarters, but to be fair the two opponents were the worst team in the NFL (Carolina) and then a reeling Philadelphia team that just wanted to be put out of its misery. And almost all of Tampa's explosive offensive plays last weekend can also be attributed to bad tackling by the Eagles. But we also have to factor in the homefield advantage here, because Detroit's stadium will be absolutely rocking. It's only their second home playoff game in 30 years and their first time in the divisional round since the early 90's with a spot in the conference championship game on the line. I get the feeling any home playoff game in Detroit will be super dramatic and come down to the wire, and I think Tampa's experience and veteran leadership makes it close, but I think this Lions team is having a special season and continually finds a way and I think their journey continues at least 1 more week. 

Score Prediction: Lions 24 Bucs 22

1 Confidence Point - #2 Buffalo over #3 Kansas City

The NFL hasn't had a back-to-back champion since the 2003 & 2004 Patriots, and I think that drought continues another year. Despite how great they are, the Chiefs have lacked consistency over the season and have shown that they cannot always be trusted, whereas the Bills have won 6 straight down the stretch and are playing the best football of their season right now. Patrick Mahomes has gotten the better of Josh Allen twice in the playoffs, the most recent of which was a controversial overtime game prior to recent rule changes where the Chiefs won the coin toss and went down the field and scored to end the game (both teams now are guaranteed a chance to have the ball in overtime). The two teams also played a controversial game in the regular season, where the Chiefs had a go-ahead touchdown late in the game overturned by an offsides penalty which ultimately helped the Bills win. This has become a really good rivalry over the past few seasons, where the Bills had some regular season success but the Chiefs would ultimately get the last laugh in the playoffs. But this year feels different. The Bills have had their backs against the wall the past several weeks and now seem to be thriving off of the fact that everyone else is finally in the same position, whereas the Chiefs were the beneficiary of one of the NFL's weakest divisions and never really had their playoff hopes in jeopardy. The previous two playoff meetings between the teams were in Kansas City, but this time it's in Buffalo. Bills Mafia is going to be electric and thirsty for revenge, and it's likely freezing weather and snow could be involved. How Mahomes & co. deal with road games in hostile environments will be interesting to see, as almost every other year the road to the Super Bowl has gone through Kansas City. But this just feels like Josh Allen's turn. They're at home, it's a revenge game, and Buffalo is red hot. I genuinely believe having their backs against the wall since midseason and having to scratch and claw their way into the playoffs made the team stronger and brought them together. It always felt like if Buffalo were to ever win a Super Bowl, that journey would involve finally beating Kansas City, and the stars are aligning for that to happen this year.

Bills 29 Chiefs 27

NFL Wild Card Weekend Predictions

 

     "It's the mostttt wonderful timeeeee of the yearrr"! Don't get me wrong, I'm sad like everyone else that the Christmas season has come to an end, but the silver lining is always that it typically marks the beginning of the NFL playoffs. After 18 weeks of the regular season, we finally have a bracket with 14 remaining hopefuls, who will play win-or-go-home games over the next month that will help us ultimately crown a Super Bowl Champion. 

     Let's take a look at the teams who survived the regular season and are still standing:

     The Baltimore Ravens are back in after finishing with a league-best record of 13-4. QB Lamar Jackson will likely win MVP, but the Ravens have never been past the 2nd round with him. Is this the year they finally break through? And will head coach John Harbaugh win the Super Bowl in the same year his younger brother Jim led Michigan to a National Title in college football?

     The San Francisco 49ers are back as the top team in the NFC. Last season ended one win short of the Super Bowl when Brock Purdy was forced to leave the conference championship game with an elbow injury. With Purdy healthy again, can the 49ers go all the way this time?

     The Buffalo Bills won their final 5 games to secure the 2 seed in the AFC. The Bills spent the majority of the season on the outside looking in of the playoff picture, but played their best football down the stretch with their backs against the wall. Is this finally the year they avenge the heartbreak of 4 straight Super Bowl losses in the 90s and win the organization's first ever championship?

     The Dallas Cowboys are back as the 2 seed in the NFC, finishing with a record of 12-5. The Cowboys have a tragic history of playoff failures and haven't gotten past the 2nd round since 1996. This is arguably their best team since then, is this the year they reverse the curse and make a deep run?

     The Kansas City Chiefs enter the playoffs as the defending Super Bowl Champions. The Chiefs' regular season had its ups and downs, but can Mahomes, Kelce, and this veteran group of champions elevate their play once again when it matters most in pursuit of a 3rd title?

     The Detroit Lions waited 30 long grueling years but are hosting their first playoff game since 1994. After a long and painful stretch of losing seasons and disappointment, is it finally the Lions' time?

     The Houston Texans were one of the biggest surprises of the season, winning the AFC South with a rookie QB and rookie head coach. Can the team overcome the youth and inexperience and conjure up a few more surprises?

     The Tampa Bay Buccaneers proved they could still reach the playoffs even without the GOAT leading the way. Can Tampa's combination of veterans from the 2021 Super Bowl team and new faces help them silence more doubters?

     The Cleveland Browns overcame injuries to FOUR different quarterbacks and still made the playoffs thanks to an elite defense, great coaching, and way better than expected QB play from Joe Flacco, who came out of retirement to fill Cleveland's need. Can the Browns continue to lean on their defense and 39 year old unretired QB to reach the organization's first ever Super Bowl?

     The Philadelphia Eagles are trying to get back to the Super Bowl after finishing as the runner up last season, falling to the Chiefs off of a last-second field goal as time expired. The Eagles started 10-1, but then lost 5 of their final 6. Can this talented group who has done it before figure things out and reach a second straight Super Bowl?

     The Miami Dolphins are back in the playoffs, despite letting the AFC East slip through their fingers to Buffalo after leading the division almost the entirety of the season. The narrative is that Miami is flashy and explosive, but lacks the toughness and grit required to defeat the league's elite teams. Can the Dolphins dig a little deeper and ride their high-flying offense to playoff success?

     The Los Angeles Rams return to the playoffs as a Wild Card after missing out last season but winning it all two years ago. With several key pieces still in tact from the 2022 Super Bowl team, can this veteran group get one more shot at a title before father time catches up with an aging core?

     The Pittsburgh Steelers snuck into the Big Dance in the final week of the season after beating Baltimore's back ups and by way of Jacksonville's choke against Tennessee. It's often never pretty, but the Steelers continually find ways to win games and have winning seasons. Can they continue that trend and make an unexpected playoff run?

     And lastly, the Green Bay Packers found a way back in Year 1 of the Post-Aaron Rodgers era, winning 6 of their final 8 games to overcome a 3-6 start. Can these new-look Packers continue to ride the hot hand and restore the historic franchise to it's glory and winning ways? 

     Now that the stage is finally set, it's time to look at this week's match ups and predict some winners. As a reminder, the Ravens and 49ers are chillen like villains this weekend, the reward they rightfully earned by being the two best teams in the regular season and earning the #1 seeds in their respective conferences. The other 12 teams must earn their way to the second round by winning this weekend.

     As a fun way of organizing, I'm going to do this ESPN Pick-Em style, by ordering my confidence level of each game from 6 to 1 (6 is most confident, 1 is biggest toss-up). So here we go:

6 Confidence Points: #2 Buffalo over #7 Pittsburgh

 Of the 6 games this weekend this one feels like the biggest mismatch. Despite finishing 10-7 and making the playoffs, the Steelers actually have a point differential of -20 (i.e., over those 17 games, their opponents have outscored them by 20 points). Translation: Pittsburgh's wins have been close and losses have been large and may not be as good as their record indicates. They probably don't win the Baltimore game (and thus would not make the playoffs) had the Ravens played their starters, and to make matters worse they lost Edge rusher TJ Watt to a Grade 3 MCL sprain. Watt is the anchor of the defense and a former Defensive Player of the Year award winner, so his absence will be a massive one and make it challenging for the Steelers to slow down Josh Allen and the Bills offense. The majority of Pittsburgh's wins come by playing good enough defense to give the offense just enough chances to score just enough points. But without Watt, Buffalo should be able to move the ball effectively and Pittsburgh's offense won't be able to keep pace. The Bills enter this game with all the momentum and the homefield advantage (in what could be cold/rainy/snowy) and their talent will be too much for Pittsburgh.

Score Prediction: Bills 30 Steelers 13

5 Confidence Points: #2 Dallas over #7 Green Bay

I'm slightly less confident in this pick due to Dallas' history of playoff chokes as well as thinking Green Bay is slightly better than Pittsburgh, but I'm still pretty confident the Cowboys will prevail. It's a fun match up of two of the NFL's oldest and most historic franchises and largest fanbases who have met several times in the playoffs over the years. But much like the Buffalo/Pittsburgh match up, Dallas is a legitimate Super Bowl contender whereas Green Bay is just happy to be here. The Cowboys are undefeated at home this season and I don't expect that to change hosting a Green Bay team still adjusting to life without Aaron Rodgers. Jordan Love has done a commendable job replacing him and probably is their present and future, but I don't believe he's going to keep up in a shootout against a veteran team in his first ever playoff game. On the flip side, I think Dallas' offense will feast against Green Bay's defense and have no issues moving the ball and scoring points. The Cowboys need 2 wins to reach the NFC Championship game for the first time since the '90s, they'll get the first one this weekend.

Score Prediction: Cowboys 34 Packers 20

4 Confidence Points: #3 Chiefs over #6 Dolphins

For these next 4 games, I think either team could end up winning, but I'm entrusting the defending champs at home with my 4-pointer. I get that they've had their struggles this season, but I think people are too quick to write them off and may be overlooking them. I still have faith that Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs is a different animal, as are head coach Andy Reid and tight end Travis Kelce, and amidst the offense's stuggles, the defense has been one of the best in the NFL. Both teams have 11-6 records, but the caveat is that 10 of the Dolphins' 11 wins come against teams with losing records, with the lone exception being the Christmas Eve win over Dallas. The Chiefs are more battle tested and have proven before that they can win in the playoffs and make Super Bowl runs. The homefield advantage may be a significant factor as well, with the kickoff temperature expected to be 7 degrees, with below-zero wind chills. Somehow Miami, who plays in the warmest city in the NFL, will need to adapt. Unlike other aforementioned underdogs, Miami does have an offense loaded with weapons like Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Raheem Mostert that can score points quickly and in bunches. They could keep pace with the Chiefs in a shootout or if KC's offensive struggles continue they could find themselves in trouble. But I think Kansas City's defense does enough to slow the Dolphins down and Mahomes and the offense make enough plays to help the Chiefs advance on a freezing January night.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 24 Dolphins 20

3 Confidence Points: #3 Detroit over #6 LA Rams

Probably the best storyline of the weekend, not just because it's the first Lions home playoff game in 30 years, but also because it features two quarterbacks who were traded for one another in 2021. At the time, Matt Stafford, a former #1 overall pick from Detroit, was a great QB on a struggling Lions team and Jared Goff, a former #1 overall pick by the Rams, was a mediocre QB on a Rams team that was loaded at every other position. The Rams felt they were a QB away from winning immediately and the Lions wanted to accelerate their rebuild, so the Rams received Stafford and the Lions received Goff and a collection of draft picks. And ultimately it worked out for both sides. The Rams would go on to win the Super Bowl that season, and the Lions would build the team to a Super Bowl contender over the next few seasons. And now their paths intertwine once again, this time in a win-or-go-home game. For Stafford it's a homecoming, for Goff it's a chance for revenge. The Rams have been a trendy upset pick by the public, but my gut feels like the Lions do end up finding a way. Their fans have waited a long time for this and head coach Dan Campbell has worked tirelessly to change the culture there. The Rams had their fun two years ago, Goff gets revenge and Detroit sets up a rematch with Dallas of the game a few weeks ago that ended off of a controversial call.

Score Prediction: Lions 28 Rams 27

2 Confidence Points: #5 Philadelphia over #4 Tampa

This is one of my lowest confidence ratings because I truly have no confidence in either team. After jumping out to a 10-1 start, the Eagles lost 5 of their final 6 and were one of the worst teams in football over the final 6 weeks. Tampa isn't exactly exuding confidence either, failing to score a touchdown last week against the worst team in football in a win-or-go-home game. It's a hard game to pick because both teams have playoff/championship experience on their rosters, and on paper the Eagles should have more talent but they're also reeling whereas Tampa played their way into the playoff by winning 5 of their final 6, albeit not against the best competition (they are 1-5 against teams that made the playoffs). Momentum entering the playoffs definitely matters, but I do think this is a winnable game for Philly if they can elevate their play now that the stakes are higher. I do think Baker Mayfield comes out motivated and that Tampa as a whole is fired up by the home crowd and wants to prove that even without Tom Brady they can be a force to be reckoned with. But I'm going to (very cautiously) trust that the Eagles figure things out, at least enough so to get by a mediocre Tampa team.

Score Prediction: Eagles 23 Bucs 17

1 Confidence Point: #5 Browns over #4 Texans

What makes this match up fascinating is that it features the youngest starting QB in the NFL and the oldest starting QB in the NFL. CJ Stroud, the 2nd overall pick in this year's NFL draft, is a 22 years old Wonderkid and is having one of the best rookie seasons we have ever witnessed. On the flip side, Joe Flacco's career was believed to be over until the Browns coaxed him out of retirement, but the extra rest seemed to do the 16 year veteran some good as he returned a better version of himself than we saw in the final couple years prior to his initial retirement. That same experience gap can be found in comparing the head coaches. The Texans hired first year head coach DeMeco Ryans this offseason, formerly a defensive coordinator for the 49ers and before beginning his coaching career a longtime linebacker of the Texans. Ryans & Stroud are only the 5th rookie QB/head coach combination ever to reach the playoffs. For the Browns, Kevin Stefanski is in his 4th season with the team and is the current frontrunner to win coach of the year, largely for his leadership and efforts in keeping the team afloat and leading them to the playoffs despite all the QB injuries. In addition to taking Stroud with the 2nd overall pick, the Texans also traded up for the 3rd overall pick where they selected Will Anderson, a linebacker from Alabama. It makes total sense given Ryans' background and Anderson probably reminds him of a younger version of himself, and Anderson has done a good job for Houston, but I'm pointing it out because it further illustrates Houston's youth and reliance on young talent. But in situations like this, I normally ride with experience. The playoffs are a different animal, as is Cleveland's defense, and I think Houston's inexperience will play a factor.

Score Prediction: Browns 22 Texans 19