NFL 2023 Predictions

 

     At long last, it is back!! It's been nearly 7 months since the Chiefs defeated the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII, but we have made it. We have endured through the dog days of summer, the waiting, the anticipation, and now it's finally time for football to make it's long awaited return. At the time of writing this, it's about 48 hours until the Chiefs and Lions kick off the 2023-24 NFL season, which means it's the last chance to lock in some pre-season predictions before the action unfolds. I always enjoy doing these and looking back at them months later to see what I was dead-right about and incredibly wrong about. Instead of doing power rankings like last season, this year I'm going to format it a little differently. I'm going to look at all 8 Divisions and predict who will get 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th, in each. I'll tell you exactly who I believe the 14 playoff teams are going to be, and give an official Super Bowl prediction.

AFC East

Prediction:
1. Bills (playoffs)
2. Jets (playoffs)
3. Dolphins
4. Patriots

     To me any of the top 3 can end up winning this division, and many people will take the Jets or Dolphins to have something different from last season, but to me I still think the Bills are the top dog.

     The Bills have won 11 or more games each of the past 3 seasons, winning 13 games in two of them. I'm still a believer in that sustained success, and that Josh Allen is the best QB in this division and a top 2 or 3 QB in the entire league. They're still a Super Bowl or bust team and I have less question marks about them than the others.

     There was no bigger storyline this season than the Jets bringing in Aaron Rodgers. This was the biggest piece of the puzzle, but led to several other dominos falling like the signing of Dalvin Cook as well as various wide receivers that Rodgers played with in the past. The Jets also had probably the best rookie class of last season. Wide Receiver Garrett Wilson won rookie of the year and has a chance to be an elite talent, running back Breece Hall could have won rookie of the year if not for a mid-season ACL tear but returns this season and he and Cook should make a lethal duo, and cornerback Sauce Gardner was the defensive rookie of the year and has a chance to be one of the league's best defensive players, along with teammate Quinnen Williams. The Jets also had one of the league's best defenses last season and won 7 games despite very below-average QB play. At 40 years old, Rodgers may not be an MVP level QB anymore, but even a shell of himself is still vastly better than what the team had last year. Thus the Jets should be improved and a team that should contend for a playoff spot and maybe even overtake Buffalo in the East.

     So much of the Dolphins' hope rests in keeping Tua Tagavailoa healthy and upright, but if he stays on the field then this is a team right there with Buffalo and New York. They have arguably the best receiving duo in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle who both have blazing speed and catching ability and Tua's ability to hit them with the deep ball or get them the ball in open space makes this one of the most explosive offenses. The Fins were 8-4 in games Tua started and finished last season and 1-5 in games he didn't, which stresses the importance of protecting him at all costs and keeping him on the field.

     I just don't see New England competing in this division. They lack the offensive explosiveness of the other 3 teams, clearly have the weakest QB, and not much in terms of the supporting pieces. They have a strong defense and maybe in some other divisions they'd be more middle of the pack but in this situation the other 3 teams are so strong and have playoff aspirations and New England could be in for a tough season.

     I think it's razor close between the Bills, Jets, and Dolphins and probably comes down to a game or two. I'm tempted to switch to the Jets after writing this, as I believe they actually have the most complete roster in terms of talent across the board. But I'll stick with the safer bet for now, which is Buffalo.

AFC North

Prediction:

1. Bengals (playoffs)
2. Ravens (playoffs)
3. Steelers
4. Browns

     
   This might be the strongest division top to bottom. It's close between Cincinnati and Baltimore, but the Bengals are a team I see winning the division and making a deep playoff run. 

     The Bengals have been knocking on the door the past couple years, being 3 points away from winning the Super Bowl two years ago, and losing to Mahomes and the Chiefs in an epic AFC Championship game that ended off of a last second field goal last season. Joe Burrow strikes me as a QB who eventually will win the Super Bowl, maybe multiple times, and has established himself as a proven winner and leader. Ja'Marr Chase is the second most talented wide receiver in the league next to Justin Jefferson and their second best receiver, Tee Higgins, would be the best receiver on many other teams.

     The Ravens have one of the league's most electrifying quarterbacks and a former league MVP in Lamar Jackson, and one of the league's best coaching staffs. Baltimore was ravaged by injuries last season, including Jackson, but still managed 10 wins and a playoff spot. Now healthier and with an improved group of receivers and new offensive coordinator, the Ravens are capable of keeping pace with Cincinnati and contending for the division crown.

     All the attention is on the Bengals and Ravens, but Pittsburgh is a dark horse to keep an eye on. They went 9-8 last year with rookie QB Kenny Pickett and had one of the league's best defenses. Edge rusher TJ Watt is one of the league's best defensive players, but missed half of the season with injuries. In games he played, the Steelers went 8-2, in games he didn't they went 1-6. With a healthy Watt and more experienced Pickett, there's reason to believe the Steelers could quietly push Cincinnati and Baltimore.

     I have the Browns in last but I don't think they're a bad team. They rolled the dice last year trading for the suspended Deshaun Watson, who had missed almost 2 years of football between contract disputes and sexual assault related suspensions. The Browns are hoping they can conjure the Watson of 3 years ago, who was leading the Texans to playoff appearances and putting up big stats, but if Watson's best days are behind him, that's bad news for Cleveland who gave up massive money and draft picks to acquire him. The Browns have one of the league's best running backs in Nick Chubb and a top edge rusher in Myles Garrett (probably of equal talent to Watt) so there's a path where even if Watson is average the Browns could still win several games by establishing the run and playing good defense. But this is a franchise that historically struggles and shoots itself in the foot and all the division rivals are strong.

     It's a good race start to finish but eventually the championship pedigree of the Bengals wins out, but the Ravens get a wild card and make the playoffs too.

AFC South

Prediction:

1. Jaguars (playoffs)
2. Titans
3. Texans
4. Colts

     This one is a lot more clear to me. The Jaguars are the clear favorite, the Titans are the other team that may still have a remote shot, and the Texans and Colts don't stand much of a chance.

     Jacksonville is a team I am bullish on this year. Few teams were as red hot the 2nd half of the year as Jacksonville, who won it's final 5 games to make the playoffs, and then won a wild playoff game against the Chargers in an epic 27 point comeback, and ultimately lost to the Chiefs in a competitive game where they were only down 3 entering the 4th quarter. Things really began clicking for Trevor Lawrence down the stretch, and the sky is the limit for him as an NFL QB. When he's on his A game, the Jags offense as a whole is firing on all cylinders. 

     Tennessee is an interesting one because they were 7-3 last season before injuries stockpiled and they crashed and burned losing their final 7 games. This year will be revealing as to whether that collapse was truly a result of the injuries or if the team as a whole is declining and needs to rebuild. Trading up to draft Will Levis early in round 2 seemed like a contingency plan in case the Titans are unable to get out to a quick start and Jacksonville gets separation in the standings.

     I'm gonna group the Texans and Colts together here because they're similar situations. Teams with rookie quarterbacks and rookie head coaches who are tearing everything down and starting from scratch. The Texans hired De'Meco Ryans, who was formerly the defensive coordinator for the 49ers, and they drafted quarterback CJ Stroud from Ohio State with the 2nd overall pick and then gave up their first round pick next year to get Arizona's this year and drafted defensive player Will Anderson from Alabama with the third overall pick. The Colts hired Steve Steichen, formerly the offensive coordinator of the Philadelphia Eagles, and drafted quarterback Anthony Richardson of Florida with the 4th overall pick. Both pairs of young coaches and quarterbacks could have bright futures, but adjusting to the NFL takes time as does building the team around these foundational pieces.

     So to me it's clear that it should be Jacksonville 1st and Tennessee 2nd, I'll give Houston a slight edge to finish 3rd since Stroud is a more pro-ready QB than Richardson and since they added two elite prospects to their team in the draft.

AFC West

Prediction:

1. Chiefs (playoffs)
2. Chargers (playoffs)
3. Broncos
4. Raiders

     Look the Chargers and Broncos are good teams, but there's no reason to get cute and pick against the defending champs.

     How much of an explanation does this really need? They still have Patrick Mahomes. They still have Andy Reid coaching. They still have Travis Kelce. All the Chiefs do is win lots of football games and make deep playoff runs. They've reached the AFC Championship game 5 years in a row, reaching the Super Bowl 3 times and winning it 2 times. Reid is a genius and Mahomes is the best player in the game right now, who won 3 playoff games on one leg during last season's championship run.

     I see the #2 spot as pretty close between the Chargers and Broncos, but I'm a believer in Justin Herbert. He's put up eye-popping statistics over his first 3 seasons and adding TCU Wide Receiver Quentin Johnston in the draft and hiring former Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore could help him ascend even higher. They still have a talented running back in Austin Ekeler and talent across the defense especially in edge rushers Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. Blowing a 27 point lead to the Jaguars in the wild card round last season will haunt them forever, but this is a new season and a clean slate so how they respond to that adversity will be telling.

     Denver struggled last season after trading for long time Seahawks QB Russell Wilson and hiring former Packer's offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. Hackett was fired after just one season and the Broncos persuaded former Saints coach Sean Payton to come out of retirement. Payton is a Super Bowl winning coach who groomed hall of famer Drew Brees, and Wilson is a former Super Bowl winning quarterback, in fact he was a yard away from winning it twice. It's a team that, on paper, should be better than last season, but by how much is the question. If Payton's arrival can help Wilson return to form, it's certainly possible they finish ahead of the Chargers and contend for a playoff spot.

     I have the Raiders 4th and see them as a 6 or 7 win team. They swapped out QB Derek Carr for Jimmy Garropolo but I don't think that really moves the needle all that much. There's still talent there, DaVante Adams is still a top 5 wide receiver and Josh Jacobs finished first in rushing yards last season. Garropolo has a better win percentage over the course of his career, but statistically he's not much different from Carr, you could even argue statistically Carr was better. Vegas hopes Jimmy G can translate his individual success to the franchise, but it's tough to buy into this team being drastically better than last year.

      The Chiefs remain the team to beat and the team that runs the division, Chargers/Broncos will be an interesting race for 2nd and likely a playoff spot.

NFC East

Prediction

1. Eagles (playoffs)

2. Cowboys (playoffs)

3. Giants

4. Commanders

     This division had 3 teams in the final 8 last season and a Super Bowl representative. To me, the Eagles still have all the tools to win it again and get back to the Super Bowl.

     Philadelphia had arguably the most complete roster last season and yet still found ways to improve it in the offseason. They added two quality running backs in De'Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny and selected defensive player Jalen Carter from Georgia with the 9th overall pick (the Eagles owned New Orleans' pick, 10th overall, and then traded up 1 spot on draft night to grab Carter). All of those players bolster units that were already very strong to begin with. Jalen Hurts proved himself to be one of the best QB's in the league last season, and AJ Brown and Devonta Smith were stud receivers and the defense was among the best in the NFL. GM Howie Roseman knows how to build a roster and he has set up Philly for another year of success.

     It's same old song and dance for the Cowboys, massive expectations, bright spotlights, and people under immense pressure on the hot seat. The perennial questions remain of if Dak Prescott can ever lead this team to a Super Bowl or if Mike McCarthy is the right person to coach this team to a Super Bowl. In Dallas it's about winning and stringing together more than a couple consecutive losses will get people talking and have people concerned for their jobs. This is certainly still one of the NFC's more talented rosters and in any other division it would probably compete for first, but I don't see it as good as Philly's.

     The Giants are a tough one to figure out. On the one hand, they made the playoffs last season and even won a playoff game, and aggressively spent money to improve the roster. On the contrary, many feel they overachieved last season and will struggle to repeat that same level of success. It remains unclear if Daniel Jones can quarterback them to a Super Bowl, but the franchise committed long-term big money to him in hopes he could be the guy. They have a stud running back in Saquon Barkley, and plenty of receivers but none that seem to possess true star potential at this point. The defense was strong for them last season and the offensive line was greatly improved. I think there's a strong chance the positives and negatives cancel out one-another and the Giants end up around a similar win total to last year, which a win total of 9 should put them in the running for a playoff spot. 

     The Commanders to me are not as good as the 3 teams above them. They're entrusting Sam Howell to play QB this season, a former 5th round pick who only started one meaningless game for them in the last game of the season and was mediocre at best. They're strong defensively but lack the offensive talent of the other teams and I just have the least belief in them.

     The Eagles are still the division's best team, but the Cowboys are most likely a playoff team with the Giants having a reasonable shot as well.

NFC North

Prediction:

1. Lions (playoffs)
2. Vikings (playoffs)
3. Bears
4. Packers

     Let me preface this one by saying this is the one division where I think all 4 teams are actually incredibly close and any of the 4 can end up winning it. I have mad love for Kirk Cousins and I also like what Chicago is building, but my gut feeling is this is finally Detroit's time and I'm buying into the hype around them that started with Hard Knocks last season.

     The Lions played inspired football last season. After starting 1-6, the Lions had a massive mid-season turnaround, going on to win 8 of their final 10 games and finish with their first winning record since 2017, which was vastly improved from going 3-13 the year prior. There was a noticeable grit and belief and self-confidence about this team that didn't exist in the prior years, a different fire in their eyes and hunger to be good. Coach Dan Campbell is building a real culture there, and last year you began to see the fruit of that labor. This feels like the year they take that next step, which would be winning the division and going back to the playoffs. The Lions haven't won the division since 1993 and haven't won a playoff game since 1991, meaning neither has occurred in my lifetime.

     Most people expect Minnesota to regress from last year's 13-4 record, given their abnormally great record in games decided by 8 points or less (11-0). To play in that many 1-score games and win every single of one of them doesn't happen without luck and good fortune. Losing Dalvin Cook hurts too but Minnesota is hoping Alexander Mattison can be a worthy replacement. The question is just how much would Minnesota regress by. Because for example even if Minnesota wins 3 less games this season that still puts them at 10 wins which is probably good enough to contend for the division or at least a wild card. Many think they may not be a playoff team this year but they still have Kirk Cousins slinging it and Justin Jefferson catching it so I think they could still sneak in.

     The Bears had the worst record in football last year largely because they had talented 2nd year quarterback Justin Fields and absolutely nothing else. Fortunately for them, GM Ryan Poles actively made moves this offseason to surround Fields with a better supporting cast and improve the team, which included trading the #1 overall draft pick to Carolina for a collection of players and picks to help bolster the roster. The Bears improving seems almost certain, the question is will they improve enough to contend for a playoff spot and/or the division?

     It's the end of an era in Green Bay after the organization and Aaron Rodgers mutually parted ways after an 18 year run. Now it's Jordan Love's turn, a 2020 first round pick who has waited patiently and learned from Rodgers for the past 3 seasons. Perhaps the opportunity to sit back and learn from a future hall of famer will make the adjustment for Love a lot easier than young quarterbacks who are thrust into the fire with no mentorship as rookies. But Green Bay is a hard team to pinpoint due to just not really knowing how good or not good Love is going to end up being in his first full season as the starter. This ranking is no knock against Green Bay, as I stated earlier I see all 4 teams here as very close, but somebody has to be last.

     I sincerely think all 4 teams in this division finish between 7 and 10 wins and it's one of the most exciting divisional races top to bottom. But Detroit has patiently waited 30 years to reach the top of the NFC North once again and I think they're due.

NFC South

Prediction:

1. Saints (playoffs)
2. Falcons
3. Buccaneers
4. Panthers

     The consensus is this is the weakest division, but somebody has to win it and New Orleans has the most experienced and complete roster so I'm rolling with them.

     New Orleans signed QB Derek Carr after the previously mentioned Raiders cut ties with him. Carr should provide an upgrade from the Saints' prior mediocre at best revolving door of options like Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton, and Taysom Hill. The Saints seem to always have a good defense and Chris Olave was probably the second best rookie wide receiver last season next to the aforementioned Garrett Wilson. During his time with the Raiders, Carr never played on a team that had a defense that ranked better than 19th. This should easily be the best defense he's had supporting him, which means less pressure to put up high point totals to win games. 

     Atlanta took a unique strategy in building its roster. Most teams try to find a stud quarterback and then surround him with everything else, the Falcons took the inverse approach, drafting a mediocre quarterback but trying to supply the rest of the roster with elite talents to make his job easier. The quarterback is 2nd year player Desmond Ridder, who was a 3rd round pick out of Cincinnati last season. But his arsenal of weapons includes running back Bijan Robinson (10th overall pick this year), wide receiver Drake London (8th overall pick last year) and tight end Kyle Pitts (4th overall pick two years ago). If each of those 3 reach their full potential, then life for Ridder becomes a lot easier. He doesn't have to go light the world on fire, just needs to take care of the football and get it in the hands of the right people. 

     The Bucs are also in a transitionary phase trying to figure out life after Tom Brady. Even with Brady, the Bucs only managed 8 wins last season, with half of them being 4th quarter comebacks and last minute heroics. Odds are the quarterback play will be not as good as last year. Couple that with the fact that the core from the 2020 championship team is another year older, and there's a strong possibility Tampa's win total decreases. 

     Carolina is starting from scratch much like Houston and Indianapolis are. They gave up a king's ransom to trade up for the #1 overall pick to grab QB Bryce Young. Young has a chance to be a really good QB in time, but the Panthers left the cupboard dry with all they gave up to move up to that pick. The roster will take time to rebuild and Young will take time to adjust, which leads me to believe Carolina is still a year away from being truly competitive.

     To me the Saints are the logical frontrunner here and this division should only yield 1 playoff team. The Panthers and Falcons are in youth movements, while the Bucs have the opposite problem with aging stars and a murky future. The Saints have the right combination of veterans and young-but-win-now type players. 

NFC West

Prediction:

1. 49ers
2. Seahawks
3. Rams
4. Cardinals

     I see this being a close race between San Francisco and Seattle, but ultimately think the 49ers prevail for having the most well-rounded roster and a coach who's an offensive genius.

     The 49ers have reached at least the NFC Championship game each of the last 3 seasons, and had Brock Purdy not gotten injured in last year's contest, the 49ers would have competed much better with the Eagles for the right to play for the Super Bowl. Purdy was one of the best stories of last season, the very last pick in the NFL draft who was forced into action after injuries to Trey Lance and Jimmy Garropolo, who went 8-0 in games he started and finished and led the 49ers to the final 4 before the aforementioned injury forced him out of the Eagles game. But much like the Falcons are trying to replicate, Purdy's job was made much easier by just how great the rest of San Francisco's roster is. Christian McCaffrey is the league's best running back, George Kittle is a top 5 tight end, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are a top 10 receiving duo, the offensive line is excellent, and the defense is a top 2 or 3 unit. It's a team sport and the 49ers don't really have many glaring weaknesses.

     Seattle was one of the bigger surprises of last season. Many people felt they would be a bottom 5 team after trading away Russel Wilson, but Geno Smith had a renaissance and was a top 10 QB in 2022 and helped lead them to the playoffs. It was better late than never for Smith, who had 9 subpar seasons before things started clicking and he exceeded expectations in year 10. Year 11 will reveal whether last year was a fluke or a sign of things to come, but I'm of the belief it's the latter which in turn would lead to more success for the Seahawks.

     I think most people have the Rams in 3rd but I'm not as low on them as others. This team is only two years removed from winning a Super Bowl and still has key pieces like QB Matt Stafford, head coach Sean McVay, Super Bowl MVP wide receiver Cooper Kupp, and three-time defensive player of the year Aaron Donald. Injuries plagued them last year and they're all a year older but there might still be something in the tank for one last run. But the depth isn't there and much like the Bucs it's an older roster with a lack of young blood, and I think most people are right to have them at #3.

     I have Arizona not only last in this division but I think they're the worst team currently in the NFL. QB Kyler Murray is still recovering from an ACL tear he suffered in December with no time-table for return and the team didn't do much to find a quality replacement to bridge the gap. Losing top WR DeAndre Hopkins also hurts whoever will be filling in for Murray. The team is showing no signs of actively trying to win and seems content to have a bad year and a high draft pick, and that's probably exactly what will end up happening.

     So there's a clear top 2 and a clear bottom 2, but the 49ers have a proven track record of getting it done and are a much more complete roster than Seattle, who still grabs a wild card.

Playoffs and Super Bowl

     In the AFC my fun hot take is that the Jaguars finish with the best record and get the #1 overall seed and first round bye. I have the Bengals #2, the Chiefs settling for #3 due to resting players and gearing up for a playoff run, and the Bills at #4. For my wild cards I have the Jets #5, the Ravens #6, and the Chargers #7.

     In the NFC I think for the 2nd year in a row Philly earns the #1 overall seed. I have San Francisco #2, New Orleans #3, and Detroit #4, and for my wild cards I have Dallas #5, Seattle #6, and Minnesota #7. 

     In the Wild Card Round, I think the Bengals hold serve at home and send the Chargers packing in the same round for the second straight year. Chiefs/Ravens is a great match up with two dynamic quarterbacks but the Chiefs are near impossible to beat at home in the playoffs and continue their Super Bowl defense. Bills/Jets is a grudge match of division rivals who will have met twice already, but we could use a wild card or two to advance so I'll take the Jets in the road upset. The 49ers prove to be too much for Minnesota, the defense shuts down Justin Jefferson and the offense their way against a susceptible Vikings defense. The Saints squeak past Seattle in one of the closest games of the weekend, riding the momentum of the home crowd at the Superdome. Detroit has waited 30 long years for a home playoff game and 32 for a playoff win, the crowd is raucous and helps will the home team to a win over the Cowboys, who find a way to lose in dramatic fashion as always.

     In the divisional round, the week of rest is good for both the Jaguars and Eagles, who come out as if they were fired out of a cannon and dismantle their less experienced opponents. Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes meet yet again for another epic playoff battle. This time, Burrow and Cincinnati get the last laugh and end the Chiefs' Super Bowl defense and send them home short of the divisional round for the first time since 2018. 49ers/Saints is a low scoring affair but ultimately San Francisco's experience prevails and the offense makes enough plays and scores enough points to help them live to fight another week.

     The AFC Championship features a rematch of quarterbacks who played against one another in a national title game in college. Back then, Burrow's LSU Tigers beat Lawrence's Clemson Tigers. History repeats itself in 2024, and Burrow's Bengals reach their 2nd Super Bowl in 3 years. In the NFC Championship game, the 49ers come out with a chip on their shoulder looking to avenge last season's loss with a fully healthy game from Purdy this time around. San Fran wins the rematch.

     Super Bowl 58 features great storylines. It pits a quarterback selected first overall against a quarterback selected last overall. It features a Bengals team that has never won the Super Bowl before, against a franchise that has won it 5 times. It's an epic back and forth dual, but in the end Joe Burrow leads the Bengals on a game winning drive in the final minutes when the lights shine brightest, and helps Cincinnati claim it's first ever Super Bowl trophy by a score of 27-24.

     God Bless the NFL. Welcome back!!!

Ranking All 32 Starting QB's

 

     Netflix's "Quarterback" was released a week ago and does an incredible job of capturing the day-to-day, week-to-week, highs and lows of being an NFL QB. The show follows Patrick Mahomes, Kirk Cousins, and Marcus Mariota, and gives great insight to things like the pressure put on them to win in the playoffs and pursue championships, the physical pain they endure, the mental challenges they go through, and how they balance their profession with family life. I hope this show becomes an annual thing where Netflix follows 3 different QB's each season, preferably with the same format of slecting an elite talent, a middle tier guy, and a fringe starter/back up player. Inspired by the show, this seemed like a great time and opportunity to rank all 32 NFL starting QB's ahead of the 2023 season as the excitement and anticipation for opening weekend kickoff continues to build. 

Tier 1: Rookies & Unproven Young Guys

#32. Sam Howell; Washington Commanders
Year: 2nd season
College: North Carolina
Record as starter: 1-0
Draft Pick: 144th overall (Round 5)
Furthest Playoff Appearance: Never made playoffs

     Despite projections of being an early pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, Howell slipped all the way to round 5 after under performing in his final college season. The Commanders selected him 144th overall, and he sat back and learned and waited for his opportunity while Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke split time as the starting QB for the majority of 2022. Finally in the final game of the season, the Commanders gave Howell a shot in a meaningless game against the Dallas Cowboys. Howell completed 11 of 19 passes for 169 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 interception, which is pretty mediocre, but more importantly the Commanders did win the game, which led to Howell entering 2023 as the anticipated starter. I'm still not really a believer, the Cowboys played horribly that day and Howell played average at best, and it's tough to envision Washington having a good season playing in a division that includes the Eagles, Cowboys, and Giants. But Howell will have a shot to show the Commanders brass what he is capable of in 2023 and this season will serve as an audition.

#31. Desmond Ridder; Atlanta Falcons
Year: 2nd Season
College: Cincinnati
Record as starter: 2-2
Draft Pick: 74th Overall (Round 3)
Furthest Playoff Appearance: Never made playoffs

     From watching the Netflix show, you know that Ridder was the QB in waiting for Atlanta who would get his chance if things went downhill for Mariota, which they did. Ridder went 2-2 in his 4 starts, however the two wins weren't much to write home about, seeing as one of them was against the Cardinals and the other was against the Buccaneers in the final game of the season who benched their starters the entire 2nd half to rest them and not risk injury in the playoffs. The best thing we can say about Ridder's 4 starts is that he did not throw a single interception, meaning he kept things low-risk and made good decisions with the football, but he also only threw two total touchdowns in the 4 games. There's plenty of offensive talent surrounding Ridder in Atlanta in terms of running back and wide receivers, so it will be interesting to see if Ridder can take a step forward in year 2 and show Atlanta that he can be the long term solution at QB.

#30. Anthony Richardson; Indianapolis Colts
Season: Rookie
College: Florida
Record as starter: N/A
Draft Pick: 4th Overall (Round 1)
Furtherst Playoff Appearance: N/A

     There are 3 rookies on this list and currently I have Richardson ranked the lowest of the group simply because he needs the most polishing. That being said, if he reaches his full potential he has the ability to be the best rookie of the class and a future top 5 quarterback in this league. Richardson needs development as a passer, he has ridiculous arm strength but issues with accuracy and making the right reads. Fortunately he landed with a staff that helped develop Jalen Hurts. If they can develop Richardson similarly, coupled with his limitless athleticism and rushing ability, then the sky's the limit for his NFL career.

#29. CJ Stroud; Houston Texans
Season: Rookie
College: Ohio State
Record as Starter: N/A
Draft Pick: 2nd Overall (Round 1)
Furthest Playoff Appearance: N/A

     For a long time analysts went back and forth and were very divided between who would be the eventual #1 pick between Stroud and Bryce Young. Ultimately Young won out in the end but the margin between the two seems razor-thin. You could argue Stroud has the better build and was very accurate in college, but with the exception of the final playoff game against Georgia, he didn't always play his best in those high pressure games and situations. But Stroud has the tools and potential to become a solid NFL QB and will serve as the foundation for the Texans' rebuild.

#28. Jordan Love; Green Bay Packers

Season: 4th Season
College: Utah State
Record as Starter: 0-1

Draft Pick: 26th Overall (Round 1)
Furthest Playoff Appearance: N/A

     In 2020, the Packers traded up in the draft to grab Jordan Love for him to be the eventual successor to Aaron Rodgers (who wasn't happy about this at the time). For 3 years, Love has sat and patiently waited and learned from the future Hall of Famer and now it's finally his turn. His NFL action to this point has been very limited. His only start came in November 2021 in a game he was thrust into because Rodgers tested positive for Covid, and he struggled to move the ball in a 13-7 loss to the Chiefs. He only saw action in 1 game last season, when he replaced an injured Rodgers in a Sunday night game against Philadelphia and played better, completing 6 of 9 passes for 113 yards and a touchdown in a 40-33 loss. We have very little idea of how good or bad Love will end up being, but the Packers finally moving on from Rodgers indicates they have some level of confidence in him.

#27. Bryce Young; Carolina Panthers
Season: Rookie
College: Alabama
Record as Starter: N/A
Draft Pick: 1st Overall
Furthest Playoff Appearance: N/A

     As aforementioned, Young ended up beating out Stroud to be the #1 overall pick and now begins his NFL career with the Carolina Panthers, who traded up to grab him. Young is a former Heisman Trophy winner and helped guide Alabama to a national title game two years ago (which they lost to Georgia). His lack of size (5'10, 205 lbs) helped keep the debate close with Stroud, but Young was better in just about every actual passing category in college. He has elite accuracy, great decision making, good anticipation, mobility, and made big plays in moments when the lights shined brightest. The size is the primary concern, but hopefully an NFL diet and workout regiment will help add some more muscle and good weight to his frame. 

Tier II: Could be benched by mid-season

#26. Colt McCoy; Arizona Cardinals
Season: 14th Season
College: Texas
Record as Starter: 11-25
Draft Pick: 85th Overall (Round 3)
Furthest Playoff Appearance: Never reached playoffs

 

     This one seems unfair because McCoy should be the Cardinals back-up, however Kyler Murray suffered an ACL tear in December and now it's McCoy's job until Murray is fully recovered. There is no time-table for that currently, but if the Cardinals are already too far behind once Murray is ready, I anticipate they would just let McCoy finish out the season and allow Murray to keep rehabbing and healing until next year. McCoy is a journeymen who has spent most of his career as a back up, originally drafted to the Browns and having stints with the Commanders, 49ers, Giants, and now Cardinals since 2021. He brings a wealth of experience at 36 years old and a 14 year veteran, and Arizona hoped he would serve as a good mentor to Murray. But talent-wise his ceiling just isn't as high as the other QB's in this league and expectations for Arizona are pretty low this year.

#25. Baker Mayfield; Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Season: 6th year
College: Oklahoma
Record as Starter: 32-39
Draft Pick: First Overall
Furthest Playoff Appearance: Divisional Round (2020)

     Mayfield's career has been one of ups and downs. The Browns selected him with the first overall pick in 2018. He played fairly well as a rookie, and his best season came in year 3, where he guided the lowly Browns to an 11-5 record and a playoff appearance, where they even won a game before losing in the divisional round to the Chiefs. But from there things went downhill. Mayfield went 6-8 next season, however it was later revealed that he played through a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder that entire season, which some attribute his struggles to. However Cleveland decided to move on and released Baker, who then signed with Carolina. Things didn't go well there, where Mayfield went 1-5 as the starter and was eventually released again, before signing with the Rams to end the season where he went 1-3. In need of an affordable option following Tom Brady's retirement, the Bucs rolled the dice on Mayfield and will give him one final shot to get his career back on track. Tampa still believes Baker is a talented player and fiery competitor and capable of living up to the expectation set for him when he was the first overall pick back in 2018. Baker is determined to prove he can still be a solid starting QB in this league, and the Bucs are equally eager to prove they can still be a competitive team without Brady, so perhaps this is a good match for both sides. But if it starts poorly, expect 2021 2nd round pick Kyle Trask to finally get his chance.

#24. Ryan Tannehill; Tennessee Titans
Season: Year 12
College: Texas A&M
Record as Starter: 80-68

Draft Pick: 8th overall

Furthest Playoff Appearence: AFC Championship Game (2020)

     Tannehill is significantly better than every QB who precedes him on this list, the reason for his inclusion in this tier is that the Titans traded up to draft Will Levis, a projected top-5 pick who slid all the way to round 2 on draft night. I think the Titans' plan for Levis is similar to the Packers' for Love, to have him sit for a year or two and learn from Tannehill, but if the Titans get off to a bad start, the fans will likely grow restless and call for Levis to have his chance. How the season begins will be telling as to if Tannehill is still capable of good play or if he is undoubtedly on the decline of his career. 

Tier III: Average

#23. Kenny Pickett; Pittsburgh Steelers
Season: Year 2
College: Pittsburgh
Record as Starter: 7-5
Draft Pick: 20th Overall
Furthest Playoff Appearance: Never made playoffs

     After Steelers legend Ben Roethlisberger finally retired at the end of the 2021-22 season, Pittsburgh needed to find the new heir apparent, and they selected hometown hero Kenny Pickett out of Pittsburgh University. Many were skeptical if Pickett would be a bust and was worth the first rounder the Steelers used on him, but Pickett actually played admirably and exceeded expectations as a rookie. The fanbase has justified hope and optimism that Pickett can be even better in year 2. The one knock on Pickett is he still threw more interceptions (9) than touchdowns (7) last season. But despite that, he finished with a winning record and if he limits the turnovers he will likely see more improvement.

#22. Mac Jones, New England Patriots
Season: Year 3
College: Alabama
Record as Starter: 16-16
Draft Pick: 15th Overall
Furthest Playoff Appearance: Wild Card Round (2022)

     No one wanted the undesirable task of filling the goliath sized shoes of Tom Brady in New England. But somebody had to be the guy and Mac Jones ended up being that somebody. Jones exceeded expectations in year 1, leading the Patriots to a 10-7 record and a playoff appearance, where they get smacked in the Wild Card round by Buffalo. But in year 2, Jones fell back to Earth, going 6-8 and causing the Patriots to miss the playoffs. Some of that may have been hindered by the fact that the Patriots had a defensive coach calling their offensive plays last season, and bringing in a real offensive coach in Bill O'Brien could definitely be helpful to Jones. He doesn't have the athleticism or arm strength of higher QB's on the list, but he showed in year 1 that he could be a completely serviceable option with the right tools around him.

#21. Jimmy Garoppolo; Las Vegas Raiders
Season: Year 10
College: Nevada
Record as Starter: 44-19
Draft Pick: 62nd Overall (Round 2)
Furthest Playoff Appearance: Reached Super Bowl (2020)

     It's been an interesting journey for Jimmy G. He was drafted in 2014 by the Patriots to serve as the back up to Tom Brady. In 2016, Brady had to serve a 4-game suspension for allegedly deflating footballs in a playoff game, causing Garoppolo to be thrust into action. Jimmy G took the opportunity and ran with it, winning both games he started while completing 68% of his passes and throwing 4 touchdowns and no interceptions. Brady wasn't leaving New England any time soon, but this peaked the interest of other teams with a more immediate need at QB, and the 49ers won the bidding war and traded for him in 2017. Jimmy G had a good run there, guiding them to the playoffs three times, and getting them to the Super Bowl in 2020, which they led in the 4th quarter before Mahomes and the Chiefs came back to beat them. Injuries and mediocre statistics eventually led to the 49ers looking for other options at QB, firstly Trey Lance, but then Brock Purdy (more on him later). Garoppolo's contract ended this past season and he sought an opportunity to start and more pay than San Francisco could afford. In came Vegas, who inked Garoppolo to a lucrative 3 year deal to be their starting QB. Garoppolo has always been average statistically, but what turns heads is the impressive win/loss record. People will care less what the statistics are when you win at a 70% clip. The Raiders are hoping this proven winner can bring that same success to their own struggling franchise.

Tier IV: Good

#20. Derek Carr; New Orleans Saints
Season: Year 10
College: Fresno State
Record as Starter: 63-80
Draft Pick: 36th Overall (Round 2)
Furthest Playoff Appearance: Wild Card Round (2017, 2022)

     After 9 years as a Raider, the franchise decided it was time to go a different direction and released Carr, and the Saints were quick to pounce. Carr has statistically performed well but he has more losses than wins. Some of that can be attributed to the Raiders as a franchise, who struggled to surround Carr with the tools to help take the team to the next level, but Carr must also assume some of the blame. He guided the Raiders to the playoffs twice in his 9-year tenure, but one of those, the 2017 appearance, he was injured in the final weeks of the regular season and was unable to play in the playoff game. A shame considering that was Carr's best season statistically and the Raiders cruised to a rare 12-4 record that year. But the Saints had a need, they've been unable to fill the QB void since Drew Brees retired after the 2020-21 season. The change of scenery could be a much needed breath of fresh air for Carr, playing for a city that will welcome him with open arms rather than one that was itching to make a change. The Saints have a good defense, some pieces on offense, and play in a weak division, so this is a prime opportunity for Carr to pursue a division title and another shot in the playoffs.

#19. Brock Purdy; San Francisco 49ers
Season: Year 2
College: Iowa State
Record as Starter: 7-1
Draft Pick: 262nd Overall (7th Round)
Furthest Playoff Appearance: NFC Championship Game (2023)

     We were two wins away from getting the most Hollywood most storybook ending of all time. Brock Purdy, the last pick in the NFL draft, nearly guiding the 49ers to the Super Bowl as a rookie. Purdy began the season as the 3rd string QB for San Francisco, but in Week 2 Trey Lance shattered his ankle and then in Week 13 Jimmy G suffered a foot injury that required season ending surgery. And so Brock Purdy was called upon, and he seized the opportunity and ran with it. Purdy helped the 49ers win the remaining 5 regular season games, and thus the division and the #2 seed in the NFC. Purdy then helped them win their first two playoff games, before getting injured in the NFC Championship game against the Eagles. Meaning if we discount the game he left with an injury, he had a 7-0 record as a starter. Some of his success can be attributed to the 49ers system, their coach Kyle Shanahan is an offensive genius and we've seen numerous QB's succeed in that system. Some of the success can also be attributed to how damn good the 49ers are at every other position, they have an elite defense, an elite running back, two really good receivers, and an elite tight end. But it would be equally wrong to dismiss how well Purdy played, how quickly he learned the system, and how well he handled the pressure of the situation he was thrust into. The sample size is too small to know just how good Purdy can be, but if last season was the norm and not the exception then he can ascend on the list and the 49ers can be a Super Bowl contender once more.

#18. Justin Fields; Chicago Bears

Season: Year 3

College: Ohio State

Record as Starter: 5-20

Draft Pick: 11th Overall

Furthest Playoff Appearance: Never Made Playoffs

     The win/loss record may be concerning, but in the 2nd half of year two, Fields appeared to be putting things together and adjusting to the NFL much better than he had in his first year and a half. Furthermore he had no help around him but new GM Ryan Poles has stripped the roster and made moves to help bolster the pass catchers and the offensive line. This is a huge year for Fields to show what he can do with help, both in terms of better statistics and more wins, but the Bears feel confident in him as the franchise guy, so much so that they traded away the #1 overall pick to the Panthers to accrue picks and assets to build around him. Fields is electric with his legs and mobility, but more polished passing can help him take his game to another level.

#17. Russell Wilson; Denver Broncos
Season: Year 12
College: Wisconsin
Record as Starter: 117-71-1
Draft Pick: 75th Overall (Round 3)
Furthest Playoff Appearance: Won Super Bowl (2014)

     Only 4 men on this list have won the Super Bowl (that goes to show how dominant Tom Brady was) and Wilson is one of those men. The long time Seattle Seahawk guided them to the Super Bowl back in 2014, and was a yard away from going back-to-back in 2015 but threw an interception in the end zone in the final minute of the game to give the Patriots the Super Bowl and watch a 2nd ring slip through his fingers. After 10 seasons with Seattle, the Seahawks felt it was time to rebuild, which Wilson did not wish to be a part of, so instead he was traded to the Denver Broncos for a haul of draft picks and players. Unfortunately for Denver, Wilson greatly underwhelmed in his first year as a Bronco and left the organization with a bit of buyer's remorse wondering if Wilson's best football is behind him. Former Saints coach and Super Bowl champion Sean Payton has been brought in to try to fix a disastrous situation, and should help to some degree, but it's also visibly clear that Wilson has had a decline in athleticism that comes with age and injuries. Still, the guy spent a good chunk of his career as a top 5 QB in the league, and even as a shell of himself could still be a very efficient player. The future is uncertain, but he's a player with a wide range of outcomes.

#16. Daniel Jones; New York Giants
Season: Year 5
College: Duke
Record as Starter: 22-32-1
Draft Pick: 6th Overall
Furthest Playoff Appearance: Divisional Round (2023)

     After 4 years of struggles, Jones saw a massive uptick in his production in his first year with Brian Daboll as coach. Daboll was formerly the offensive coordinator for the Buffalo Bills and helped develop Josh Allen, and he was able to make similar strides with Jones in terms of unlocking his athleticism and rushing ability. Jones also saw a massive decrease in his turnovers as he learned to take better care of the football. All of the above helped the Giants achieve their first winning record since the 2016-17 season and reach the playoffs and win a playoff game. His rushing threat has added a huge boost to the Giants offense and the front office has added some weapons to the offense that could help him take a step forward again in 2023. New York fell in love with Jones during the pre-draft process in 2019 due to how much he resembled Giants legend Eli Manning, from everything from appearance, to personality, to actual play style. It remains to be seen if Jones will ever be good enough to lead the Giants to the Super Bowl, but New York did reward his play with a lucrative long-term contract this offseason.

#15. Jared Goff; Detroit Lions
Season: Year 8
College: California
Record as Starter: 56-48-1
Draft Pick: 1st Overall
Furthest Playoff Appearance: Reached Super Bowl (2019)

     Goff was a former #1 overall pick by the LA Rams in 2016, who traded up to get him. He spent 5 seasons there and led the team to an appearance in the 2019 Super Bowl, which they lost to the Patriots 13-3. After year 5, many within the organization felt Goff was what was holding the team back from winning the Super Bowl, so they made a blockbuster trade sending him and draft picks to the Detroit Lions in exchange for Matt Stafford (more on him later). And it turned out they were right, as Stafford helped the Rams win the 2022 Super Bowl. Still, it didn't mean Goff was a bad player by any means. He and the Lions struggled as a whole in their first year together, but Goff bounced back in a big way in year 2, helping the Lions to a 9-8 record, rebounding from a 1-6 start to win 8 of their final 10 games. This Detroit team is determined to change the narrative, historically a losing franchise, but now a competitive gritty group.

#14. Deshaun Watson; Cleveland Browns
Season: Year 7
College: Clemson
Record as Starter: 32-30
Draft Pick: 12th Overall
Furthest Playoff Appearance: Divisional Round (2020)

     Watson's career began in Houston, where he put together four strong seasons which included two division titles and playoff appearances. Watson was regarded as a top-10 QB for much of that time. In 2020 the Texans reached the divisional round and actually led the Chiefs 24-0 before a catastrophic collapse allowed the Chiefs to erase the massive deficit and come back and win the game. The effects of that let down carried into Watson's final season in Houston, where the team went 4-12 and friction developed between Watson and the organization, causing him to request a trade. But then in a shocking twist of events, off the field issues and allegations came to light and forced Watson out of football for nearly two years. More than two dozen female massage therapists sued Watson for sexual harassment and sexual assault. The impending suspension that surely would follow screwed over the Texans as it made Watson difficult to trade as teams were leery of trading for a player who was going to miss a significant amount of time. A full year went by where Houston was unable to trade Watson as an investigation was ongoing and no teams were bidding. Finally, the Cleveland Browns decided Watson would be worth taking a risk on and worth accepting the public scrutiny for, and a deal was made sending Watson to Cleveland. An 11-game suspension was assessed, and Watson did not play well in the 6 games he was allowed to play in, where the Browns went 3-3 but Watson posted a career low in completion percentage and only had two more touchdowns than interceptions. He didn't noticeably improve while knocking off the rust of the long hiatus from football. Still, he's the toughest player to pinpoint on this list, because he's still only 27 and has the talent to get back to his elite ways. The truth is I have no idea how good or not good he'll be in 2023 and neither does anyone else. 

Tier V: Really Good

#13. Geno Smith; Seattle Seahawks
Season: Year 11
College: West Virginia
Record as Starter: 22-30
Draft Pick: 39th Overall (Round  2)
Furthest Playoff Appearance: Wild Card Round (2023)

     After 9 abysmal seasons, split between two years as the starter of  the Jets and then a back up for the Jets, Giants, Chargers, and Seahawks, Geno Smith finally soared to new heights in year 10, where statistically he was a top 5 quarterback most of the year before regressing to the mean a bit towards the end of the season. Smith completed 70% of his passes for 4300 yards and threw 30 TD's to only 11 interceptions. His strong performance helped lead Seattle, a team everyone projected to be in the bottom 5 after losing Russell Wilson, to a playoff appearance. Trading away Wilson for all those draft picks and players looks like an absolute heist now after how well Geno played and how poorly Wilson did in 2022. Smith had shown flashes of potential before in his career but never quite got there but he reached heights we hadn't seen before last season. That makes him another difficult QB to rank. Was last year proof that he had finally figured things out, or an outlier in an otherwise disappointing career. For me the recency bias wins out as I feel I saw enough good to believe Geno could be a solid starting QB moving forward.

 #12. Matt Stafford; LA Rams
 Season: Year 15
 College: Georgia
 Record as Starter: 93-104-1
 Draft Pick: 1st Overall
 Furthest Playoff Appearance: Won Super Bowl (2022)

     For the majority of his career, Matt Stafford was a good player trapped on a bad team, being drafted to the Lions back in 2009 and spending his playing days there until he was traded to the Rams for Jared Goff and multiple first round draft picks in 2021. Detroit was just unable to surround Stafford with the necessary talent to succeed, only making the playoffs 3 times in his 12 years there, none of which resulted in a playoff win. Being dealt to the Rams finally gave Stafford a chance at those opportunities that eluded him in Detroit like making a deep playoff run and competing for a championship. And as aforementioned in the Jared Goff section, that's exactly what happened in Stafford's first year in LA, as the Rams went all the way and won the Super Bowl. The Rams attempted to defend their title last season, but the team was decimated by injuries, which included Stafford, and the Rams went 5-12 and missed the playoffs. Now 35, Stafford hopes to prove he still has a couple good years left in the tank before age catches up with him.

#11. Tua Tagavailoa; Miami Dolphins

Season: Year 4

College: Alabama
Record as Starter: 21-13
Draft Pick: 5th Overall
Furthest Playoff Appearance: Wild Card Round (2023)

     Another difficult one to rank because when he's healthy and on the field, Tua is probably a top 10 QB, but durability and injuries have been an issue. Most notably, Tagavailoa suffered multiple concussions last season, including a scary one in a Thursday night week 4 game against the Bengals that left him paralyzed and his fingers bent in strange positions and forced him to be carried off in a stretcher. The Dolphins should do everything in their power to protect Tua at all costs and keep him upright when he's on the field, while simultaneously having contingency plans since his health is forever in question. Despite the injuries, Tua showed really good improvement in year 3, after spending much of year 1 bouncing between the starter and back-up role and struggling as the full-time starter in year 2. Miami has very explosive speedy wide receivers in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle who will help make life easier for Tua as well. If he can endure a full season, it could be a big year 4 for him and a big season overall in South Beach.

 #10. Kirk Cousins; Minnesota Vikings

Season: Year 12

College: Michigan State

Record as Starter: 73-66-2

Draft Pick: 102nd Overall (Round 4)

Furthest Playoff Appearance: Divisional Round (2020)

     Before "Quarterback" was released, I would venture to say most viewers were most excited for the Mahomes footage, however Kirk Cousins and his family stole the show and won over the hearts of millions of viewers with their humble lifestyle and down-to-earth personalities. But in addition to being a wonderful individual, Kirk also happens to be a really good quarterback. He might not have the transcendent talent of guys in the top 5, but he's extremely accurate and possesses the intangible qualities coaches crave at the position like his leadership skills and ability to battle through pain and always find a way to pick himself up every time he's knocked down. Having Justin Jefferson to throw to certainly doesn't hurt either. Still, some haters will always hate, and there will always being those pushing the narrative that Cousins chokes in prime-time games and can't win in the playoffs. But I think the majority of us are now rooting for him and wishing him all the best in the remainder of his career. How many people can say they're an elite NFL QB, but an even better human being and authentic family man? Kirk Cousins can, and that makes him a champion of life. He may be 10th on the list but he's #1 in our hearts. "You like that!" and we all love it too. 

#9. Dak Prescott; Dallas Cowboys

Season: Year 8

College: Mississippi State

Record as Starter: 63-40
Draft Pick: 135th Overall (Round 4)
Furthest Playoff Appearance: Divisional Round (2017, 2019, 2023)

     Being the starting QB of the Dallas Cowboys is right up there with being the President of the United States in terms of how much you're in the spotlight and how much you're subject to public scrutiny. Overall, Prescott has dealt with the pressure and attention well. The continued lack of playoff success for the Cowboys is what ultimately keeps him outside of the next tier. Prescott has a playoff record of 2-4 and the Cowboys continue to be unable to break through past the Divisional round, something they haven't done since 1996. Last season, he played an almost flawless game in the Wild Card round against Tampa, but then in the Divisional round the 49ers defense proved to be too strong. All 3 of the Divisonal round losses with Prescott at QB were 1 score games, so they are always close, it's just a matter of will they ever get over the hump. Dak is statistically very good, always posting high yardage and touchdown numbers year after year, though if there's one area he could improve it's limiting the turnovers. But at the end of the day, he will always be measured by whether or not he lives up to the lofty expectations of Cowboys fans and the mass sports media and whether or not he can guide them to somewhere they haven't been since we were infants. 

Tier VI: Potential to be Elite (or in Aaron Rodgers' case, trying to become elite again)

#8. Lamar Jackson; Baltimore Ravens
Season: Year 6
College: Louisville
Record as Starter: 46-19
Draft Pick: 32nd Overall
Furthest Playoff Appearance: Divisional Round (2020, 2021)

     A former league MVP in 2020, Lamar Jackson is probably the biggest dual threat QB on this list when it comes to someone who can take off and get yards with his legs while also being a decent passer. As a younger player, Jackson's natural instinct was to run and take off when the play broke down, but Baltimore has tried to develop him as a more balanced rusher/passer and one who could use his mobility to extend plays until a receiver gets open similarly to how Mahomes does in Kansas City. The Ravens have made the playoffs all but once in Jackson's 5 seasons there, but only once have won a playoff game. And thus this is where the narrative sits on Jackson currently: an uber talented regular season QB, but one who hasn't proven he can win in the playoffs yet. The two sides (Jackson and the Ravens) also had a massive standoff in the offseason where Jackson demanded a lucrative contract that the Ravens did not want to pay, leading to rumors of Jackson requesting a trade and having no intention of playing for Baltimore again. Baltimore was unable to find a trade partner willing to meet their high asking price and eventually, the Ravens ponied up and paid the bill and the two sides reached an agreement to keep Lamar in town for a few more years. Despite all of this, Jackson is still one of the most electrifying QB's in the league with his top-notch speed and elusiveness. The more he develops as a passer, the better of a player he will ultimately become.

#7. Trevor Lawrence; Jacksonville Jaguars
Season: Year 3
College: Clemson
Record as Starter: 13-23
Draft Pick: 1st Overall
Furthest Playoff Appearance: Divisional Round (2023)

     It's amazing how important good coaching/bad coaching can be for a young QB's development, and Lawrence is a prime example. Urban Meyer was hired as the Jaguars coach for Lawrence's rookie season. Meyer was formerly a retired college football coach who coached at both Ohio State and Florida and won three national titles. The Jaguars lured Meyer out of retirement to take a shot at the NFL, and this proved to be a complete trainwreck, for reasons both on the field and off. On the field he Jaguars were 2-11 under Meyer, worst record in the NFL. Off the field there were two very notable incidents. The first occurred in September and involved Meyer inappropriately touching a woman who was not his wife at a bar he owned in Ohio, the second involved physically abusing the team kicker by kicking him and not stopping when asked. Other players and coaches were critical of his treatment of them and finally the week before Christmas Meyer was dismissed. The offseason came and the Jags got a 2nd chance at making a quality hire. This time they went with Doug Pederson, an experienced coach who led the Eagles to the Super Bowl in 2018 but was out of coaching for a couple of years. This proved to be a much better hire. While the Jags still struggled in the beginning, starting 4-8, they won their final 5 games which helped them to win the division and secure a playoff spot. Things really began clicking for Lawrence the 2nd half of the season, who played like a top 5 QB over the final 7 weeks. But perhaps the most head-turning performance came in the playoff game against the Chargers in the Wild Card round. The Jaguars fell into a 27-0 hole in the first half and all hope seemed lost, but Lawrence rallied the team to an improbable and historic come from behind 31-30 victory. Jacksonville's season would end in Kansas City the following weekend, but Lawrence has arrived, and the future looks mighty bright for him and the Jags as a whole.

     

#6. Aaron Rodgers; New York Jets
Season: Year 19
College: California
Record as Starter: 158-85-1
Draft Pick: 24th Overall
Furthest Playoff Appearance: Won Super Bowl (2011) 

     The biggest splash of the offseason came when the Jets traded for Aaron Rodgers, after the 18 year relationship between him and the Packers had finally run its course. The Jets are trying to emulate the success the Bucs had bringing in Brady at old age a few years ago and even to a lesser extent the Rams bringing in Stafford in his mid 30's. Rodgers is one of the most talented players of our generation, a 4-time MVP award winner and a future Hall-of-Famer, which makes it a bit disappointing that he has only won (or even reached) the Super Bowl once, which was 13 seasons ago. A player of his magnitude and accolades should probably have won multiple titles, especially considering the Packers made the playoffs 12 times during his tenure there. But perhaps the change of scenery and new environment will rejuvenate Rodgers and if he has something left in the tank the Jets have way more surrounding talent on the offense than the Packers had. On the contrary, eventually father time catches up with everyone, as we saw with Brady last season, and Rodgers turns 40 in December. Seeing as he's only two years removed from back to back MVP seasons and given the Jets strong supporting cast, I think a bounce back year is likely.

#5. Justin Herbert; LA Chargers

Season: Year 4

College: Oregon

Record as Starter: 25-25

Draft Pick: 6th Overall

Furthest Playoff Appearance: Wild Card Round (2023)

     Not many players are able to come into the league and put up the eye-popping stats that Herbert has over his first 3 years. Even with so many things working against him: inexperience, fractured rib cartilage, mediocre receivers and offensive linemen, Herbert was still one of the best quarterbacks of that span and set numerous rookie records and records for his first 2 and 3 years. The bad news for Justin is being stuck in the AFC West, the same division as Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Herbert helped lead the Chargers to the playoffs last season and a commanding 27-0 lead in the Wild Card game, before squandering it in an epic collapse to Jacksonville as aforementioned in the Trevor Lawrence section. Kellen Moore, the former offensive coordinator for the Dallas Cowboys, was brought in this offseason by LA to fill the same position, and he's someone who could help take Herbert's game to another level and continue the meteoric rise we've seen from him over the past 3 seasons. The Chargers also inked Herbert to a 5-year $262 million dollar extension this week, officially committing to him for the long haul and hoping the hefty investment will motivate Herbert to lead them to a Super Bowl.

#4. Jalen Hurts; Philadelphia Eagles
Season: Year 4

College: Oklahoma/Alabama
Record as Starter: 25-13
Draft Pick: 53rd Overall (Round 2)
Furthest Playoff Appearance: Reached Super Bowl (2023)

     You can argue that Jalen Hurts was the 2nd best QB in football last season, but I'm ranking him 4th because the 3 people ahead of him have sustained success over multiple years, whereas with Hurts we need to see if this is the new expectation or no. It's been a wild ride for Hurts. He was the starting QB at Alabama and led them to a national title game, but he was then benched in the game for playing poorly and Tua Tagavailoa was put in who played very well and helped Alabama win the national title and became their full time starter. This caused Hurts to transfer to Oklahoma, where he had a great final season and still got drafted. During the draft process, there were many skeptics of Hurts who thought he was a good rusher but would never be a good enough passer in the NFL but the Eagles were willing to roll the dice on him with their 2nd round pick. Hurts eventually was given the opportunity to be the starter towards the end of the 2020-2021 season and his first two seasons were defined by flashes of potential but also question marks of if he could truly become a great NFL QB. But last season Hurts finally silenced the doubters. Hurts lit the world on fire, finishing 2nd in MVP voting, leading the Eagles to a 14-1 record as the starter in the regular season, and leading them all the way to the Super Bowl, nearly winning it. It was no fault if Hurts' that the Eagles fell short. He had 4 total TD's (3 rushing, 1 passing) and 374 total yards (370 passing, 70 rushing) and the 35 points put up by Philadelphia was the highest ever by a losing team in Super Bowl history. Hurts believes the Eagles can get back there, and win this time. His career has been a roller coaster, filled with ups and downs, but the continued belief in himself has gotten him to where he is today, which is a top 5 QB in this league.

Tier VII: Elite

#3. Josh Allen; Buffalo Bills
Season: Year 6
College: Wyoming
Record as Starter: 56-28
Draft Pick: 7th Overall
Furthest Playoff Appearance: AFC Championship (2021)

     It was razor thin for be between Allen and #2. If we're going off statistics, Allen is probably #2, but I put heavier weight on performance in big games and clutch moments and that gave the other player the slight edge. That's not to say Allen hasn't been good in big moments, he has guided Buffalo to at least the Divisional round each of the last 3 seasons, with an AFC Championship game appearance in 2021. But Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow have been the obstacles that have kept Allen and the Bills from being able to break through and reach the Super Bowl. Allen has almost supernatural arm strength, being able to throw a ball over 80 yards through the air (for reference: most good QB's can throw it between 50 and 60). That same arm strength allows him to get a lot of velocity behind his throws too. He's also a good rusher and can make plays with his legs and athleticism. Allen and the Bills have been knocking on the door the last few years, but you only get so many shots at reaching and winning the Super Bowl, which Buffalo has never done. The franchise is hoping and praying that Allen is the "Prince that was Promised" and the one who will help the organization capture it's first ever Super Bowl.

#2. Joe Burrow; Cincinnati Bengals
Season: Year 4
College: LSU
Record as Starter: 29-19-1
Draft Pick: 1st Overall
Furthest Playoff Appearance: Reached Super Bowl (2022)

     As aforementioned, razor thin close between Burrow and Allen, but Burrow gets the nod here for being a proven winner and someone who elevates his performance in the game's most high pressure moments when the lights shine brightest. Burrow came out of nowhere to lead LSU to an undefeated season and national title in his final collegiate season, putting up one of the most historically dominant season's we've ever seen in college football among QB's. He rode that momentum all the way to the #1 pick in the draft, a draft class that included Hurts, Herbert, and Tagavailoa. A torn ACL cut his rookie season short, but he rehabbed and healed fully for year 2. In year 2 he did something improbable: guided his team to the Super Bowl and nearly won it. In year 3 he proved that run was no fluke, as Cincinnati again made the playoffs, eliminated Buffalo, and nearly made a 2nd straight Super Bowl, losing to Mahomes and the Chiefs off a last-second field goal as time expired. Speaking of Mahomes, Burrow is the only person on this list to experience real success against him, with 3 wins and only 1 loss in match ups between the two of them. Like Buffalo, Cincinnati has never won the Super Bowl, but Burrow seems destined to change that before his career is over.

#1. Patrick Mahomes; Kansas City Chiefs
Season: Year 7
College: Texas Tech
Record as Starter: 75-19
Draft Pick: 10th Overall
Furthest Playoff Appearance: Won Super Bowl (2020, 2023)

     Patrick Mahomes is without question the best player in the game today. Still only 27 years old, the man has two Super Bowls, two Super Bowl MVP's, two regular season MVP's, 5 AFC Championship appearances, 5 division titles, 5 pro-bowls, the list goes on and on. He's also completely revolutionized the position with his unique play style and his ability to do all the things any other coach would advise any other player not to: throws off balance, throws across his body, throws while a defender is dragging him to the ground, side arms, underhand passes, shovel passes, etc. We already knew he's a generational talent, but the Netflix series gives even more background into how hard he trains, how fiery of a competitor he is, and how much winning and greatness means to him. Winning not one, not two, but three playoff games practically on one leg is simply amazing, and goes to show that he will find a way to will himself no matter the pain and cost. People can hate his lifestyle, his brother, his wife, but he has the combination of God-given talent, hunger, determination, and work-ethic that coaches crave and that comes around once in a generation. I think there are more Super Bowl's in his future, and it seems like his goal is to catch Brady's number of 7, dare I say top it.