At long last, it is back!! It's been nearly 7 months since the Chiefs defeated the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII, but we have made it. We have endured through the dog days of summer, the waiting, the anticipation, and now it's finally time for football to make it's long awaited return. At the time of writing this, it's about 48 hours until the Chiefs and Lions kick off the 2023-24 NFL season, which means it's the last chance to lock in some pre-season predictions before the action unfolds. I always enjoy doing these and looking back at them months later to see what I was dead-right about and incredibly wrong about. Instead of doing power rankings like last season, this year I'm going to format it a little differently. I'm going to look at all 8 Divisions and predict who will get 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th, in each. I'll tell you exactly who I believe the 14 playoff teams are going to be, and give an official Super Bowl prediction.
AFC East
1. Bills (playoffs)
2. Jets (playoffs)
3. Dolphins
4. Patriots
To me any of the top 3 can end up winning this division, and many people will take the Jets or Dolphins to have something different from last season, but to me I still think the Bills are the top dog.
The Bills have won 11 or more games each of the past 3 seasons, winning 13 games in two of them. I'm still a believer in that sustained success, and that Josh Allen is the best QB in this division and a top 2 or 3 QB in the entire league. They're still a Super Bowl or bust team and I have less question marks about them than the others.
There was no bigger storyline this season than the Jets bringing in Aaron Rodgers. This was the biggest piece of the puzzle, but led to several other dominos falling like the signing of Dalvin Cook as well as various wide receivers that Rodgers played with in the past. The Jets also had probably the best rookie class of last season. Wide Receiver Garrett Wilson won rookie of the year and has a chance to be an elite talent, running back Breece Hall could have won rookie of the year if not for a mid-season ACL tear but returns this season and he and Cook should make a lethal duo, and cornerback Sauce Gardner was the defensive rookie of the year and has a chance to be one of the league's best defensive players, along with teammate Quinnen Williams. The Jets also had one of the league's best defenses last season and won 7 games despite very below-average QB play. At 40 years old, Rodgers may not be an MVP level QB anymore, but even a shell of himself is still vastly better than what the team had last year. Thus the Jets should be improved and a team that should contend for a playoff spot and maybe even overtake Buffalo in the East.
So much of the Dolphins' hope rests in keeping Tua Tagavailoa healthy and upright, but if he stays on the field then this is a team right there with Buffalo and New York. They have arguably the best receiving duo in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle who both have blazing speed and catching ability and Tua's ability to hit them with the deep ball or get them the ball in open space makes this one of the most explosive offenses. The Fins were 8-4 in games Tua started and finished last season and 1-5 in games he didn't, which stresses the importance of protecting him at all costs and keeping him on the field.
I just don't see New England competing in this division. They lack the offensive explosiveness of the other 3 teams, clearly have the weakest QB, and not much in terms of the supporting pieces. They have a strong defense and maybe in some other divisions they'd be more middle of the pack but in this situation the other 3 teams are so strong and have playoff aspirations and New England could be in for a tough season.
I think it's razor close between the Bills, Jets, and Dolphins and probably comes down to a game or two. I'm tempted to switch to the Jets after writing this, as I believe they actually have the most complete roster in terms of talent across the board. But I'll stick with the safer bet for now, which is Buffalo.
AFC North
1. Bengals (playoffs)
2. Ravens (playoffs)
3. Steelers
4. Browns
This might be the strongest division top to bottom. It's close between Cincinnati and Baltimore, but the Bengals are a team I see winning the division and making a deep playoff run.
The Bengals have been knocking on the door the past couple years, being 3 points away from winning the Super Bowl two years ago, and losing to Mahomes and the Chiefs in an epic AFC Championship game that ended off of a last second field goal last season. Joe Burrow strikes me as a QB who eventually will win the Super Bowl, maybe multiple times, and has established himself as a proven winner and leader. Ja'Marr Chase is the second most talented wide receiver in the league next to Justin Jefferson and their second best receiver, Tee Higgins, would be the best receiver on many other teams.
The Ravens have one of the league's most electrifying quarterbacks and a former league MVP in Lamar Jackson, and one of the league's best coaching staffs. Baltimore was ravaged by injuries last season, including Jackson, but still managed 10 wins and a playoff spot. Now healthier and with an improved group of receivers and new offensive coordinator, the Ravens are capable of keeping pace with Cincinnati and contending for the division crown.
All the attention is on the Bengals and Ravens, but Pittsburgh is a dark horse to keep an eye on. They went 9-8 last year with rookie QB Kenny Pickett and had one of the league's best defenses. Edge rusher TJ Watt is one of the league's best defensive players, but missed half of the season with injuries. In games he played, the Steelers went 8-2, in games he didn't they went 1-6. With a healthy Watt and more experienced Pickett, there's reason to believe the Steelers could quietly push Cincinnati and Baltimore.
I have the Browns in last but I don't think they're a bad team. They rolled the dice last year trading for the suspended Deshaun Watson, who had missed almost 2 years of football between contract disputes and sexual assault related suspensions. The Browns are hoping they can conjure the Watson of 3 years ago, who was leading the Texans to playoff appearances and putting up big stats, but if Watson's best days are behind him, that's bad news for Cleveland who gave up massive money and draft picks to acquire him. The Browns have one of the league's best running backs in Nick Chubb and a top edge rusher in Myles Garrett (probably of equal talent to Watt) so there's a path where even if Watson is average the Browns could still win several games by establishing the run and playing good defense. But this is a franchise that historically struggles and shoots itself in the foot and all the division rivals are strong.
It's a good race start to finish but eventually the championship pedigree of the Bengals wins out, but the Ravens get a wild card and make the playoffs too.
AFC South
1. Jaguars (playoffs)
2. Titans
3. Texans
4. Colts
This one is a lot more clear to me. The Jaguars are the clear favorite, the Titans are the other team that may still have a remote shot, and the Texans and Colts don't stand much of a chance.
Jacksonville is a team I am bullish on this year. Few teams were as red hot the 2nd half of the year as Jacksonville, who won it's final 5 games to make the playoffs, and then won a wild playoff game against the Chargers in an epic 27 point comeback, and ultimately lost to the Chiefs in a competitive game where they were only down 3 entering the 4th quarter. Things really began clicking for Trevor Lawrence down the stretch, and the sky is the limit for him as an NFL QB. When he's on his A game, the Jags offense as a whole is firing on all cylinders.
Tennessee is an interesting one because they were 7-3 last season before injuries stockpiled and they crashed and burned losing their final 7 games. This year will be revealing as to whether that collapse was truly a result of the injuries or if the team as a whole is declining and needs to rebuild. Trading up to draft Will Levis early in round 2 seemed like a contingency plan in case the Titans are unable to get out to a quick start and Jacksonville gets separation in the standings.
I'm gonna group the Texans and Colts together here because they're similar situations. Teams with rookie quarterbacks and rookie head coaches who are tearing everything down and starting from scratch. The Texans hired De'Meco Ryans, who was formerly the defensive coordinator for the 49ers, and they drafted quarterback CJ Stroud from Ohio State with the 2nd overall pick and then gave up their first round pick next year to get Arizona's this year and drafted defensive player Will Anderson from Alabama with the third overall pick. The Colts hired Steve Steichen, formerly the offensive coordinator of the Philadelphia Eagles, and drafted quarterback Anthony Richardson of Florida with the 4th overall pick. Both pairs of young coaches and quarterbacks could have bright futures, but adjusting to the NFL takes time as does building the team around these foundational pieces.
So to me it's clear that it should be Jacksonville 1st and Tennessee 2nd, I'll give Houston a slight edge to finish 3rd since Stroud is a more pro-ready QB than Richardson and since they added two elite prospects to their team in the draft.
AFC West
1. Chiefs (playoffs)
2. Chargers (playoffs)
3. Broncos
4. Raiders
Look the Chargers and Broncos are good teams, but there's no reason to get cute and pick against the defending champs.
How much of an explanation does this really need? They still have Patrick Mahomes. They still have Andy Reid coaching. They still have Travis Kelce. All the Chiefs do is win lots of football games and make deep playoff runs. They've reached the AFC Championship game 5 years in a row, reaching the Super Bowl 3 times and winning it 2 times. Reid is a genius and Mahomes is the best player in the game right now, who won 3 playoff games on one leg during last season's championship run.
I see the #2 spot as pretty close between the Chargers and Broncos, but I'm a believer in Justin Herbert. He's put up eye-popping statistics over his first 3 seasons and adding TCU Wide Receiver Quentin Johnston in the draft and hiring former Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore could help him ascend even higher. They still have a talented running back in Austin Ekeler and talent across the defense especially in edge rushers Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. Blowing a 27 point lead to the Jaguars in the wild card round last season will haunt them forever, but this is a new season and a clean slate so how they respond to that adversity will be telling.
Denver struggled last season after trading for long time Seahawks QB Russell Wilson and hiring former Packer's offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. Hackett was fired after just one season and the Broncos persuaded former Saints coach Sean Payton to come out of retirement. Payton is a Super Bowl winning coach who groomed hall of famer Drew Brees, and Wilson is a former Super Bowl winning quarterback, in fact he was a yard away from winning it twice. It's a team that, on paper, should be better than last season, but by how much is the question. If Payton's arrival can help Wilson return to form, it's certainly possible they finish ahead of the Chargers and contend for a playoff spot.
I have the Raiders 4th and see them as a 6 or 7 win team. They swapped out QB Derek Carr for Jimmy Garropolo but I don't think that really moves the needle all that much. There's still talent there, DaVante Adams is still a top 5 wide receiver and Josh Jacobs finished first in rushing yards last season. Garropolo has a better win percentage over the course of his career, but statistically he's not much different from Carr, you could even argue statistically Carr was better. Vegas hopes Jimmy G can translate his individual success to the franchise, but it's tough to buy into this team being drastically better than last year.
The Chiefs remain the team to beat and the team that runs the division, Chargers/Broncos will be an interesting race for 2nd and likely a playoff spot.
NFC East
This division had 3 teams in the final 8 last season and a Super Bowl representative. To me, the Eagles still have all the tools to win it again and get back to the Super Bowl.
Philadelphia had arguably the most complete roster last season and yet still found ways to improve it in the offseason. They added two quality running backs in De'Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny and selected defensive player Jalen Carter from Georgia with the 9th overall pick (the Eagles owned New Orleans' pick, 10th overall, and then traded up 1 spot on draft night to grab Carter). All of those players bolster units that were already very strong to begin with. Jalen Hurts proved himself to be one of the best QB's in the league last season, and AJ Brown and Devonta Smith were stud receivers and the defense was among the best in the NFL. GM Howie Roseman knows how to build a roster and he has set up Philly for another year of success.
It's same old song and dance for the Cowboys, massive expectations, bright spotlights, and people under immense pressure on the hot seat. The perennial questions remain of if Dak Prescott can ever lead this team to a Super Bowl or if Mike McCarthy is the right person to coach this team to a Super Bowl. In Dallas it's about winning and stringing together more than a couple consecutive losses will get people talking and have people concerned for their jobs. This is certainly still one of the NFC's more talented rosters and in any other division it would probably compete for first, but I don't see it as good as Philly's.
The Giants are a tough one to figure out. On the one hand, they made the playoffs last season and even won a playoff game, and aggressively spent money to improve the roster. On the contrary, many feel they overachieved last season and will struggle to repeat that same level of success. It remains unclear if Daniel Jones can quarterback them to a Super Bowl, but the franchise committed long-term big money to him in hopes he could be the guy. They have a stud running back in Saquon Barkley, and plenty of receivers but none that seem to possess true star potential at this point. The defense was strong for them last season and the offensive line was greatly improved. I think there's a strong chance the positives and negatives cancel out one-another and the Giants end up around a similar win total to last year, which a win total of 9 should put them in the running for a playoff spot.
The Commanders to me are not as good as the 3 teams above them. They're entrusting Sam Howell to play QB this season, a former 5th round pick who only started one meaningless game for them in the last game of the season and was mediocre at best. They're strong defensively but lack the offensive talent of the other teams and I just have the least belief in them.
The Eagles are still the division's best team, but the Cowboys are most likely a playoff team with the Giants having a reasonable shot as well.
NFC North
1. Lions (playoffs)
2. Vikings (playoffs)
3. Bears
4. Packers
Let me preface this one by saying this is the one division where I think all 4 teams are actually incredibly close and any of the 4 can end up winning it. I have mad love for Kirk Cousins and I also like what Chicago is building, but my gut feeling is this is finally Detroit's time and I'm buying into the hype around them that started with Hard Knocks last season.
The Lions played inspired football last season. After starting 1-6, the Lions had a massive mid-season turnaround, going on to win 8 of their final 10 games and finish with their first winning record since 2017, which was vastly improved from going 3-13 the year prior. There was a noticeable grit and belief and self-confidence about this team that didn't exist in the prior years, a different fire in their eyes and hunger to be good. Coach Dan Campbell is building a real culture there, and last year you began to see the fruit of that labor. This feels like the year they take that next step, which would be winning the division and going back to the playoffs. The Lions haven't won the division since 1993 and haven't won a playoff game since 1991, meaning neither has occurred in my lifetime.
Most people expect Minnesota to regress from last year's 13-4 record, given their abnormally great record in games decided by 8 points or less (11-0). To play in that many 1-score games and win every single of one of them doesn't happen without luck and good fortune. Losing Dalvin Cook hurts too but Minnesota is hoping Alexander Mattison can be a worthy replacement. The question is just how much would Minnesota regress by. Because for example even if Minnesota wins 3 less games this season that still puts them at 10 wins which is probably good enough to contend for the division or at least a wild card. Many think they may not be a playoff team this year but they still have Kirk Cousins slinging it and Justin Jefferson catching it so I think they could still sneak in.
The Bears had the worst record in football last year largely because they had talented 2nd year quarterback Justin Fields and absolutely nothing else. Fortunately for them, GM Ryan Poles actively made moves this offseason to surround Fields with a better supporting cast and improve the team, which included trading the #1 overall draft pick to Carolina for a collection of players and picks to help bolster the roster. The Bears improving seems almost certain, the question is will they improve enough to contend for a playoff spot and/or the division?
It's the end of an era in Green Bay after the organization and Aaron Rodgers mutually parted ways after an 18 year run. Now it's Jordan Love's turn, a 2020 first round pick who has waited patiently and learned from Rodgers for the past 3 seasons. Perhaps the opportunity to sit back and learn from a future hall of famer will make the adjustment for Love a lot easier than young quarterbacks who are thrust into the fire with no mentorship as rookies. But Green Bay is a hard team to pinpoint due to just not really knowing how good or not good Love is going to end up being in his first full season as the starter. This ranking is no knock against Green Bay, as I stated earlier I see all 4 teams here as very close, but somebody has to be last.
I sincerely think all 4 teams in this division finish between 7 and 10 wins and it's one of the most exciting divisional races top to bottom. But Detroit has patiently waited 30 years to reach the top of the NFC North once again and I think they're due.
NFC South
1. Saints (playoffs)
2. Falcons
3. Buccaneers
4. Panthers
The consensus is this is the weakest division, but somebody has to win it and New Orleans has the most experienced and complete roster so I'm rolling with them.
New Orleans signed QB Derek Carr after the previously mentioned Raiders cut ties with him. Carr should provide an upgrade from the Saints' prior mediocre at best revolving door of options like Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton, and Taysom Hill. The Saints seem to always have a good defense and Chris Olave was probably the second best rookie wide receiver last season next to the aforementioned Garrett Wilson. During his time with the Raiders, Carr never played on a team that had a defense that ranked better than 19th. This should easily be the best defense he's had supporting him, which means less pressure to put up high point totals to win games.
Atlanta took a unique strategy in building its roster. Most teams try to find a stud quarterback and then surround him with everything else, the Falcons took the inverse approach, drafting a mediocre quarterback but trying to supply the rest of the roster with elite talents to make his job easier. The quarterback is 2nd year player Desmond Ridder, who was a 3rd round pick out of Cincinnati last season. But his arsenal of weapons includes running back Bijan Robinson (10th overall pick this year), wide receiver Drake London (8th overall pick last year) and tight end Kyle Pitts (4th overall pick two years ago). If each of those 3 reach their full potential, then life for Ridder becomes a lot easier. He doesn't have to go light the world on fire, just needs to take care of the football and get it in the hands of the right people.
The Bucs are also in a transitionary phase trying to figure out life after Tom Brady. Even with Brady, the Bucs only managed 8 wins last season, with half of them being 4th quarter comebacks and last minute heroics. Odds are the quarterback play will be not as good as last year. Couple that with the fact that the core from the 2020 championship team is another year older, and there's a strong possibility Tampa's win total decreases.
Carolina is starting from scratch much like Houston and Indianapolis are. They gave up a king's ransom to trade up for the #1 overall pick to grab QB Bryce Young. Young has a chance to be a really good QB in time, but the Panthers left the cupboard dry with all they gave up to move up to that pick. The roster will take time to rebuild and Young will take time to adjust, which leads me to believe Carolina is still a year away from being truly competitive.
To me the Saints are the logical frontrunner here and this division should only yield 1 playoff team. The Panthers and Falcons are in youth movements, while the Bucs have the opposite problem with aging stars and a murky future. The Saints have the right combination of veterans and young-but-win-now type players.
NFC West
1. 49ers
2. Seahawks
3. Rams
4. Cardinals
I see this being a close race between San Francisco and Seattle, but ultimately think the 49ers prevail for having the most well-rounded roster and a coach who's an offensive genius.
The 49ers have reached at least the NFC Championship game each of the last 3 seasons, and had Brock Purdy not gotten injured in last year's contest, the 49ers would have competed much better with the Eagles for the right to play for the Super Bowl. Purdy was one of the best stories of last season, the very last pick in the NFL draft who was forced into action after injuries to Trey Lance and Jimmy Garropolo, who went 8-0 in games he started and finished and led the 49ers to the final 4 before the aforementioned injury forced him out of the Eagles game. But much like the Falcons are trying to replicate, Purdy's job was made much easier by just how great the rest of San Francisco's roster is. Christian McCaffrey is the league's best running back, George Kittle is a top 5 tight end, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are a top 10 receiving duo, the offensive line is excellent, and the defense is a top 2 or 3 unit. It's a team sport and the 49ers don't really have many glaring weaknesses.
Seattle was one of the bigger surprises of last season. Many people felt they would be a bottom 5 team after trading away Russel Wilson, but Geno Smith had a renaissance and was a top 10 QB in 2022 and helped lead them to the playoffs. It was better late than never for Smith, who had 9 subpar seasons before things started clicking and he exceeded expectations in year 10. Year 11 will reveal whether last year was a fluke or a sign of things to come, but I'm of the belief it's the latter which in turn would lead to more success for the Seahawks.
I think most people have the Rams in 3rd but I'm not as low on them as others. This team is only two years removed from winning a Super Bowl and still has key pieces like QB Matt Stafford, head coach Sean McVay, Super Bowl MVP wide receiver Cooper Kupp, and three-time defensive player of the year Aaron Donald. Injuries plagued them last year and they're all a year older but there might still be something in the tank for one last run. But the depth isn't there and much like the Bucs it's an older roster with a lack of young blood, and I think most people are right to have them at #3.
I have Arizona not only last in this division but I think they're the worst team currently in the NFL. QB Kyler Murray is still recovering from an ACL tear he suffered in December with no time-table for return and the team didn't do much to find a quality replacement to bridge the gap. Losing top WR DeAndre Hopkins also hurts whoever will be filling in for Murray. The team is showing no signs of actively trying to win and seems content to have a bad year and a high draft pick, and that's probably exactly what will end up happening.
So there's a clear top 2 and a clear bottom 2, but the 49ers have a proven track record of getting it done and are a much more complete roster than Seattle, who still grabs a wild card.
Playoffs and Super Bowl
In the AFC my fun hot take is that the Jaguars finish with the best record and get the #1 overall seed and first round bye. I have the Bengals #2, the Chiefs settling for #3 due to resting players and gearing up for a playoff run, and the Bills at #4. For my wild cards I have the Jets #5, the Ravens #6, and the Chargers #7.
In the NFC I think for the 2nd year in a row Philly earns the #1 overall seed. I have San Francisco #2, New Orleans #3, and Detroit #4, and for my wild cards I have Dallas #5, Seattle #6, and Minnesota #7.
In the Wild Card Round, I think the Bengals hold serve at home and send the Chargers packing in the same round for the second straight year. Chiefs/Ravens is a great match up with two dynamic quarterbacks but the Chiefs are near impossible to beat at home in the playoffs and continue their Super Bowl defense. Bills/Jets is a grudge match of division rivals who will have met twice already, but we could use a wild card or two to advance so I'll take the Jets in the road upset. The 49ers prove to be too much for Minnesota, the defense shuts down Justin Jefferson and the offense their way against a susceptible Vikings defense. The Saints squeak past Seattle in one of the closest games of the weekend, riding the momentum of the home crowd at the Superdome. Detroit has waited 30 long years for a home playoff game and 32 for a playoff win, the crowd is raucous and helps will the home team to a win over the Cowboys, who find a way to lose in dramatic fashion as always.
In the divisional round, the week of rest is good for both the Jaguars and Eagles, who come out as if they were fired out of a cannon and dismantle their less experienced opponents. Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes meet yet again for another epic playoff battle. This time, Burrow and Cincinnati get the last laugh and end the Chiefs' Super Bowl defense and send them home short of the divisional round for the first time since 2018. 49ers/Saints is a low scoring affair but ultimately San Francisco's experience prevails and the offense makes enough plays and scores enough points to help them live to fight another week.
The AFC Championship features a rematch of quarterbacks who played against one another in a national title game in college. Back then, Burrow's LSU Tigers beat Lawrence's Clemson Tigers. History repeats itself in 2024, and Burrow's Bengals reach their 2nd Super Bowl in 3 years. In the NFC Championship game, the 49ers come out with a chip on their shoulder looking to avenge last season's loss with a fully healthy game from Purdy this time around. San Fran wins the rematch.
Super Bowl 58 features great storylines. It pits a quarterback selected first overall against a quarterback selected last overall. It features a Bengals team that has never won the Super Bowl before, against a franchise that has won it 5 times. It's an epic back and forth dual, but in the end Joe Burrow leads the Bengals on a game winning drive in the final minutes when the lights shine brightest, and helps Cincinnati claim it's first ever Super Bowl trophy by a score of 27-24.
God Bless the NFL. Welcome back!!!
