Been wanting to do a write-up for a while but have struggled to find the time. After this weekend's action, the regular season will be 2/3 of the way complete, as teams enter the playoff push in the final third. This is going to be more of an informal write up and format, just giving some interesting thoughts on a wide scope of topics, and I'm just gonna forgo the fancy intro and just jump right into.
A Changing of the Guard in the AFC?
For several years now, the de-facto favorites in this conference have been Kansas City, Buffalo, and Baltimore. But what if I told you that if the season ended prior to last weekend, none of those 3 would even with their divisions, and two of those 3 would miss the playoffs entirely?
Beginning with Kansas City, the Chiefs currently sit at 6-5 with only 6 games remaining. In the AFC West, they sit 3 games behind Denver, who is 9-2, and would also need to leapfrog the Chargers who are 7-4. They play both once more between now and the end of the season, both match ups are in Arrowhead. It's been a decade since someone besides Kansas City won this division, but there's a very real chance of the streak coming to an end this year. In fact ESPN stats & info only gives Kansas City an 11% chance to win the AFC West. A wild card would be more attainable (61%). Those numbers would have been even lower had the Chiefs not rallied late to win the Colts game last weekend. The Chiefs are only 1 game behind all 3 wild card teams (Buffalo, Chargers, Jacksonville), but would also need to finish ahead of fellow 6-5 teams like Houston and Pittsburgh. What further complicates Kansas City's chances is the fact that they already have head to head losses to all 3 teams ahead of them. The Chiefs have reached the Super Bowl all but one of the past 6 seasons, so needless to say them missing the playoffs entirely would make the AFC wide open in a way we haven't seen in a long time.
Seg-waying to Baltimore next since they are also 6-5 and would have also missed the playoffs if the season ended before Sunday. However the team has 5 in a row since an abysmal 1-5 start and now sits atop the AFC North after catching Pittsburgh this past weekend. Only 4 teams in NFL history have overcome a 1-5 start to make the playoffs, but the Ravens are well positioned to become the 5th after getting Lamar Jackson back and going on a big winning streak. It also helped that the AFC North was one of the weakest divisions this year, in large part due to an early season Joe Burrow injury. I do think Baltimore ends up winning this division however that may end up only being good enough for the 4 seed if New England, Denver, and Indianapolis continue their winning ways.
Then we have Buffalo, who sits at 7-4, 3 wins behind New England in the AFC East, and would be a wild card team if the season ended today. Buffalo has long ruled the AFC East, having won this division every year since 2020, but the emergence of the Patriots has this streak in serious jeopardy as well. After a strong start, the Bills had some head-scratchers over the past couple weeks, namely a 17 point loss to a bad Dolphins team and then a loss to the Texans Thursday night without their starting quarterback. I still feel pretty confidently the Bills will be a playoff team, and perhaps they can make a late push for the division still, but it's seeming more and more likely that the Patriots might hold them off and get to the finish line and force the Bills to settle for a wild card and play their playoff games on the road.
Lastly, we have to give these newcomers their flowers. Denver and New England look like legitimate contenders who are ready to slay the dragons in their respective divisions. Denver's defense might be the best in the entire NFL and for New England 2nd year QB Drake Maye looks like a rising star. The Colts are also quietly sitting at 8-3 and have a real chance to win the AFC South, which has been won by the Texans the past 2 seasons. The pressure will ramp up on all 3 of these teams over these final 6 weeks and will be interesting to see which ones can actually reach the finish line.
Even if some combination of Chiefs/Bills/Ravens all get in, reaching the Super Bowl without homefield advantage will be a tall task in itself. We know Arrowhead is a tough place to play for any road team in the playoffs, as is walking into the snowy tundra of Buffalo and dealing with Bills Mafia.
Chiefs' complete 180 and struggles in 1-score games
Last season, including playoffs, the Chiefs were 12-0 in 1 score games. Prior to Sunday, they were 0-5. To me this one of the most interesting statistics of the season and a big reason for the Chiefs finding themselves in the hole they are in. It's almost inexplicable how Kansas City could go from being so elite in those moments to the complete opposite, and it's something they will need to collectively figure out if they hope to turn this around and make another Super Bowl run.
NFC is very deep but feels like Eagles or Rams are most likely
To me there are still 6 or 7 teams capable of making a Super Bowl run if the stars align. But seems like the Eagles and Rams are establishing themselves as the favorites for now.
Starting with the Eagles, they still have all the ingredients. Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, two stud wide receivers (AJ Brown and Devonta Smith), great offensive line, great defense, and made aggressive moves at the trade deadline to give the team a chance. I'm 99.9% sure they win their division because Dallas, Washington, and the Giants aren't close, and their odds of locking down the 1 seed remain decent (trail the Rams by a game but own the head-to-head tiebreaker) This is another team where home field advantage will serve them well, weather will be cold and windy and Philly fans are among the loudest.
The team most likely to prevent Philadelphia from reaching a 2nd straight Super Bowl is the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams are 9-2 and very much in play for homefield advantage. You could also argue that they are more battle tested by playing in a very competitive NFC West that also includes two other playoff caliber teams in Seattle and San Francisco. They are a veteran group, extremely well-balanced, and still have some key pieces from the Super Bowl winning team in 2022.
I still think any of the following could make a run as well: Lions, Packers, Seahawks, Buccaneers, 49ers.
Detroit was thought to be the 2nd best team in the conference when the season began, and perhaps they still are. They're another very complete team that has gained valuable playoff experience over the past couple seasons and toughness and grit is their M.O. Similarly, their NFC North division rival Green Bay is also deep, experienced, and well-rounded. The splash trade for Micah Parsons in the offseason signaled that they were all-in and going for it this year. The interesting part is that both of these teams currently trail the Chicago Bears in the NFC North, but all 3 are very close and I'm just not convinced a team as young and inexperienced as the Bears can hold off two super talented veteran teams like Detroit and Green Bay.
I have said all season long that I believe Seattle is sneaky good and I still firmly believe that. They are flying under the radar and that's probably exactly what they want. I have also been saying since the offseason that the Buccaneers are one of the dark horses and I still firmly believe that as well. The recent skid has them flying under the radar as well but this team will likely get healthy again late in the year. If the team gets back Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Bucky Irving, and Jalen McMillan all before playoffs, it is one of the best offenses in the NFL and one that will keep them in any game, especially with Baker Mayfield and Emeka Egbuka playing at such a high level. San Francisco is also a team that's surviving a litany of injuries to key players, but a roster and coaching staff that has as much playoff experience as any team out there.
The Titans have the best odds of landing the #1 overall pick
And that's a good thing. They added the foundational piece last season in Cam Ward, who has certainly had his growing pains but has also flashed potential. Securing the top pick for a 2nd straight year gives the Titans two excellent options: use the pick on the best college prospect to pair alongside Ward, or trade the pick back to another quarterback-needy team for a king's ransom of helpful assets. Either will help Tennessee accelerate their rebuild and add to this exciting era of change in Nashville with a coaching search ongoing and new stadium on the horizon.
Tennessee is 1-9 currently but there are 4 teams sitting at 2 wins who are also in the mix: Jets, Giants, Raiders, and Saints. Tennessee winning its second game would make this a very interesting race for the bottom, however Tennessee and the Giants are the only team of those 5 who would not be in the market for a quarterback.
Award Predictions
Begging with MVP, this currently feels like a close race between Patriots QB Drake Maye and Rams QB Matthew Stafford. This is a fun clash of young and old, with Maye being only 23 and only in year 2, whereas Stafford is 37 and in his 17th season. There were rumors that Stafford had contemplated retirement in the offseason, but clearly coming back was the right choice. This is also a big change from the preseason odds, where Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts were considered the obvious favorites. Earlier in the year Baker Mayfield and Dak Prescott were also making some noise but this seems to have tailed off.
Coach of the Year often goes to a coach who inherited a bad team and made it surprisingly good. Right now this appears to be a close race between Mike Vrabel (Patriots) and Shane Steichen (Colts), with outside chances for guys like Ben Johnson (Bears), Dave Canales (Panthers), and Mike McDonald (Seahawks). If any of those latter 3 win their divisions their odds will shoot up astronomically.
Emeka Egbuka has a good chance to win Rookie of the Year after his scorching hot start, but the final 6 games will matter. Jaxson Dart is probably the next closest, but missing a couple games due to injury have swung the odds back in Egbuka's favor. To me Egbuka is the correct pick, not only because he made an immediate impact from day 1, but equally because he's been a pivotal piece to Tampa's wide receiver group with Evans, Godwin, and McMillan all missing extended time. I'm not sure if Tampa wins the division again without Egbuka being as far ahead of schedule as he is.
Coaches on the Hot Seat and Jobs Already Open
There are currently 2 openings, Tennessee and the Giants, both of whom made mid-season changes. Both will attract good candidates due to their desirable locations and young QB's with upside.
I expect somewhere between 4 and 6 more jobs will come open. Miami seems likely to tear it down and start over unless the team makes a late push. Arizona is a possibility as it's year 3 for Jonathan Gannon and there haven't been signs of improvement. Cleveland may be in play as well as Kevin Stefanski is in year 6 and this year and last 2 were horrible. There's whispers about Cincinnati being on the table but feels like Zac Taylor has been dealt bad hands since the 2022 Super Bowl team with injuries to key players, especially Joe Burrow missing significant time in 2 different seasons. For the most part, Year 1 and Year 2 guys tend to be safe, but there's some been some speculation about Raheem Morris in his 2nd year in Atlanta not having accomplished enough with a talented roster, as well as Pete Carroll in Vegas, who is 74 years old and signed a shorter contract with the expectation of winning immediately (which hasn't happened).
