The clock has officially struck zero, prompting green and white confetti to rain from the rafters. Philadelphia's 40-22 Super Bowl victory over the Kansas City Chiefs officially puts a bow on the 2024-25 NFL season. The Eagles are able to finally get their revenge from two years ago, when Kansas City narrowly won the same match up in the Super Bowl, and their dominant performance thwarted the Chiefs' hopes to become the NFL's first ever 3-peat Super Bowl champion.
And thus the offseason begins. While it does make me sad knowing there will be no more NFL Sundays until September, the offseason can still be a tremendously fun and interesting time. Free Agency can be a tornado that has us fans refreshing our Twitter pages in anticipation of news ad-nauseum, and the NFL draft is a continuous guessing game fueled by rookie hype. Hope and optimism are in abundance for all 32 teams and their fanbases. Every signing will work out perfectly, no draft pick will be a bust, any previously injured players are healthy again, the offseason program will make stars out of their developing players, and the coaches will develop schemes to work around any of their remaining weaknesses.
Building an NFL roster can be much like buying a new car. It's exciting to see all the new features of the expensive machine you are investing in. After all, spending the past several years driving the same car around was just getting dull. Even just changing the color of the car would add some much needed dopamine and needed change to your life. But then sometimes driving the new car out of the lot wasn't all you had hoped it would be, and the value depreciates instantly. The AC is a bit lacking, the brakes are a tad sensitive, and worst of all the cup holder is too narrow to fit your wife's egregiously large cups.
To draw another fun analogy, the offseason can be much like a season of Game of Thrones. It's the time for the decision makers to plot and strategize and enact their plans for NFL domination. Swaying the balance of power can take a number of forms, from coaching changes, to contract negotiations, to marquee free agent signings, to drafting college stars, to making blockbuster trades, and so on.
The NFL Sunday experience will always be the conductor of the unstoppable NFL train, but the offseason is the fuel that drives it. No one watches a movie and skips to the end. The NFL calendar is a process that is meant to be enjoyed in ALL of its components, even with as fun and exciting as the final chapters may be. So this post will serve as an official farewell to the 2024-25 season, and look ahead to the biggest storylines and topics of the offseason.
Can Philly run it back?
Winning once is hard, and going back to back is even harder. In the 59 year history of the Super Bowl, only 9 teams have gone back-to-back with only two of those happening in the 2000's (03-04 Patriots and 23-24 Chiefs). Despite this, the previous year's champion almost always enters the offseason as the Super Bowl favorite, and it's hard to argue against the Eagles given how dominant their final two games were and how complete the roster is.
For Philadelphia it probably starts with free agency and contract negotiations, as many players can use this Super Bowl to advocate for larger contracts and bigger paydays (deservedly so). It's just the nature of the business. We already saw Jalen Hurts land a big extension that will make him the highest paid player annually, others will demand similar raises and the Eagles will have to make some tough decisions on who absolutely has to stay and who is unaffordable as they comply with the salary cap. Most of the team remains under contract and will be back for at least next season though. The Eagles will also need to hire a new Offensive Coordinator as Kellen Moore is leaving to become the new head coach of the New Orleans Saints.
Another challenge teams trying to go back to back face is sustaining that same hunger they had before winning the first time. After winning there's an influx of appearances, parades, endorsement deals, award ceremonies, and other distractions that come with the eternal glory. For some this can be a motivation tactic to want to win it again, but for others winning it once is enough to satisfy the appetite and it can be hard to find that same drive to put in the blood, sweat, and tears on a daily basis and study every little detail on film.
The championship window is still very much open for the Eagles, but a number of other teams will be in line to challenge them for the crown.
How much longer is the Dynasty window open for Kansas City?
The short answer is probably as long as Patrick Mahomes is QB and Andy Reid is head coach, but losing the Super Bowl in the fashion they did does raise some questions. How can such a loss be explained? Was it fatigue from all the deep playoff runs of years past, did age play a factor, did Philly simply have a perfect game plan, or did KC simply have an off night, or is it some combination of all of the above? Some would argue this was a long time coming, as the Chiefs had mastered the art of squeaking out close games in the 4th quarter, and it was only a matter of time before they played a game where they dug themselves a hole they could not climb out of.
Still, this is one of the smartest coaching staffs and front offices in the NFL. They will study the film and pinpoint what the problems were and how to address them this offseason. They're hoping for quick clarity on the future of Travis Kelce, who may or may not retire. Kelce may not be in his prime anymore, but the Chiefs are still better with him on the field than not. If Kelce does return, which I think he will after how things ended, the Chiefs will have very limited cap space, and would need to use the draft to attempt to fill their holes.
One thing that could potentially help the Chiefs get back to the top is if Rashee Rice is available next season. Rice was having a breakout sophomore season before an ACL tear ended it prematurely, and also faces some legal questions regarding his participation in a road race where another car hit and killed an uninvolved driver. It's possible Rice will be still healing, or face a suspension, or both come the start of next season, but if he is healthy and available, this gives the Chiefs a much needed offensive playmaker especially as Kelce continues to age and slow down.
Can one of these "close but no cigar" teams finally finish the job?
The main ones I'm looking at are Buffalo, Baltimore, and Detroit, and to a smaller extent San Francisco. These are all teams that have been knocking on the door the last few years but for one reason or another can't get over the hump. Philadelphia would have been on this list as well had they not won the big game.
Starting with Buffalo, the two lingering questions, which go hand in hand, are "Can Josh Allen ever beat Patrick Mahomes?" and "Will Josh Allen ever win (or even reach) the Super Bowl?". Allen is coming off of an MVP season, but adding another difference-maker or two that could help take some of the weight off of his shoulders could go a long way.
The Lions were a dominant team plagued by injuries, especially on the defense. They were able to weather the storm through the regular season, but then the lack of depth reared its ugly head in the playoffs when the Detroit defense was unable to stop the Washington offense. For Detroit the name of the game is adding depth this offseason, doing so and/or having better injury luck next season would put them back in the mix.
Baltimore is a pretty complete team that I wouldn't change much on. From a roster perspective they are the team that is most similar to Philly. They have a star QB and star RB, a great defense, and a good blend of talented young players, stars in their prime, and proven and still reliable veterans. Shoring up the offensive line is one way they could further emulate the Eagles' model, as it could take Baltimore's run game to even more elite level. But overall this is a team that just needs to stay persistent and stick with it and then deliver in the playoff games when the lights shine brightest.
The 49ers had a down year and along with Detroit were probably the team most negatively impacted by injuries. In the 5 seasons before this one, the 49ers reached the NFC Championship game 4 times and the Super Bowl twice, losing close games to Kansas City in both appearances. But then this season the injuries stockpiled and the 49ers finished 6-11 and missed the playoffs, which was not the season they envisioned after nearly winning a Super Bowl the year prior. I'm not sure how much longer the window remains open for San Francisco. Brock Purdy is still young but many of the surrounding pieces are getting older (Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Trent Williams) and Deebo Samuel also recently requested a trade. All that being said, if San Francisco still believes they have another year or two to go for it with this aging core, then they should absolutely put all their chips on the table and go all-in before the window is officially closed. I doubt they need any extra motivation, but if they do the Super Bowl is in San Francisco next season and the 49ers could potentially play the big game in their home stadium.
Are there any other teams that are potentially a move or two away from joining the contenders?
The conversation starts with Washington, who just reached the NFC Championship game with a rookie QB and new head coach leading the way. The future couldn't look any brighter for Jayden Daniels, and given the fact that he's still on a rookie contract for the next 3 seasons, the time is now to spend spend spend and go all in to surround Daniels with talent and weapons while his contract is still super team-friendly.
Cincinnati is a team that would be right there if they played any defense whatsoever. In fact they set an NFL record for most points per game in losses. The team actually did end the season on a 5-game winning streak, so in theory improving their defense could make them a real contender since we know the offense can score in bunches. The Bengals fired their defensive coordinator at the end of the season, so hopefully a new hire and some new players will help Cincinnati bolster this unit and help get them from one of the worst in the league to closer to average.
Similarly, Tampa Bay was a team with a really good offense and a mediocre at best defense. The back end of the defense more specifically really struggled. The Buccaneers were top 5 in most key offensive statistical categories, even after losing star wide receiver Chris Godwin to a season-ending ankle injury. Losing offensive coordinator Liam Coen hurts, but Tampa opted for an internal hire so they could run the same offense, promoting Josh Grizzard who worked under Coen and served as the teams pass game coordinator this past season. Godwin is a free agent but assuming he re-signs then this could be a top-5 offense once again. The defense needs help, but Tampa has ways it could create more cap-space through re-structuring/back ending contracts, and could also address these holes in the draft.
Lastly, I feel like Green Bay is close. The one thing I feel could put them over the top is a true alpha wide receiver. There's a good collection of B-list pass catchers but not having that elite play-maker go-to guy feels like its holding the offense back from taking the next step.
Which teams have QB questions that need answering?
I would say somewhere between a quarter and a third of the league has some sort of QB-related issue that needs clarity. Since there are so many teams, will try to run through them rather quickly. Will do so alphabetically by location.
Atlanta needs to figure out what to do with Kirk Cousins and his large contract. The Falcons replaced Cousins with rookie Michael Penix, who performed well and will probably be the team's starter next season and beyond. Cousins makes far too much to be a back up QB, but is there a trade partner out there willing to take on his contract and use him as their starter? If Cousins isn't moved, he'll be an amazing second option, but clearing this money off the books would give the Falcons far more cap flexibility to build the team around Penix.
The Browns continue to struggle to find a reliable option, a problem that's haunted them since before our birth. They own the #2 pick in this year's draft, meaning they could start over once again with the 2nd best college QB prospect.
The Raiders are also in a season of change with new ownership, a new GM, and new head coach. A new QB is almost certain to follow. Vegas owns the 6th pick in the draft, but at least 3 teams picking ahead of them also need QB's (Titans, Browns, Giants). This means the Raiders will either need to trade up, or go after a free agent instead.
The Rams remain to be seen as they are awaiting a decision from Matthew Stafford on his future. If Stafford returns for another season, that's the move, but if not the Rams will need to evaluate the free agent and trade market. At the time of writing, it seems as though Stafford is more likely to return than not.
Minnesota has one of the more precarious situations as they have two decent options. The Vikings selected Michigan QB JJ McCarthy with the 8th pick in last year's draft with the intent of him being the future franchise QB. However Sam Darnold played incredibly well after McCarthy tore his ACL in the pre-season. Darnold is a free agent and other teams would likely pay good money for his services, whereas McCarthy would also have good trade value from a QB-needy team. Keeping both for one more year isn't off the table, but eventually a long-term decision to commit to one or the other will need to be made.
The Giants are searching for the new franchise QB after finally throwing in the towel on Daniel Jones after 6 seasons. They own the #3 pick in the draft, but if Tennessee and Cleveland both take QB's, New York may need to pivot.
The Jets have made it known that the Aaron Rodgers experiment is over. It's unclear whether the Jets will blow things up and enter a full rebuild, or try again with a different veteran considering there's still some good offensive weapons on the roster. For Rodgers himself it remains to be seen if this is the end of his career or if he wishes to continue. Even if he does, is there a team willing to take a chance on him given his age and the failed tenure with the Jets?
Pittsburgh is similar to Minnesota in that they have two names to keep an eye on in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. Both were added to the team this season and both are now free agents. Wilson was the starter when healthy, and he played well enough to lead the Steelers to the playoffs, but he's 36 now and well past his prime. Fields played well in games that Wilson missed and he's only 25 and offers more long-term upside. The Steelers have a wide range of outcomes here, as they could opt to bring back one, or both, or neither.
Lastly, the Titans own the #1 pick in the draft. The early consensus is they would use this on Miami's Cam Ward. No rookie is ever a sure thing, but the draft experts seem to feel Ward offers the highest upside of this year's QBs. Drafting Ward allows the Titans to begin a new era.
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