Wild Card Weekend is complete and we are one step closer to finding out which two teams will compete in Super Bowl LVIII. We said goodbye to 6 more teams last weekend, meaning only 8 teams still have the championship dream alive, including 2 that have never reached the Super Bowl (Detroit, Houston) and a third that has reached it but never won it (Buffalo). Before jumping into this week's games, let's briefly recap last weekend's:
In the first game of the weekend, the Houston Texans demolished the Cleveland Browns by a score of 45-14. Cleveland was a slight favorite entering this game, but the inexperience proved to be no problem for the Texans who easily cruised to victory.
In the second game of the weekend, the Dolphins struggled to adapt to the artic elements in Kansas City. The home team kept its Super Bowl defense alive and went on to win by a score of 26-7.
The third game of the weekend provided the biggest upset, as the 7 seed Green Bay Packers disposed of the 2 seed Dallas Cowboys by a score of 48-32. Green Bay's present and future in the Jordan Love era continues to look bright, while Dallas' history of playoff woes and early exits, and the public scrutiny that comes with it, continues.
The fourth game yielded the first Detroit Lions playoff victory in 32 long years, which came in dramatic fashion as the Lions held off the Rams 24-23. For Detroit, it's a step closer to reaching the Super Bowl for the first time ever in franchise history, while the Rams will have to evaluate how much longer beyond this year their veteran group can contend for titles.
Game 5 only happened because volunteers within Bills mafia gave their time to shovel snow into the wee hours of Monday morning, after the stadium was buried following a large weekend snowstorm. The home team did not disappoint its dedicated and hard working fans, as the Bills defeated the Steelers by a score of 31-17.
And then in the weekend's final game on Monday Night Football, the Buccaneers delivered the final blow to a floundering Eagles team. Much like Green Bay, Tampa continues to exceed expectations in it's first year removed from a future Hall of Fame QB, while Philly continues to reflect and get to the bottom of what went wrong down the stretch after the season began so well.
All the meanwhile, Baltimore and San Francisco enjoyed a week of rest. Both teams also rested their starters in Week 18, meaning the starters for both teams haven't played since New Years Eve.
There are 4 games on the slate this weekend, two on Saturday and two on Sunday. So just like last week, I will assess confidence points and make a winner and score prediction for each of them:
4 Confidence Points - #1 San Francisco over #7 Green Bay
With my highest level confidence pick I am taking the well-rested 49ers to defeat the red hot Packers. What Green Bay did to Dallas should not be overlooked, a game that was even more of a blow out than the final score indicated, considering Green Bay jumped out to a 27-0 lead and Dallas added a couple late scores to make it look more competitive than what it really was. But alas, San Francisco is a veteran team with Super Bowl aspirations that doesn't have the same habit of playoff letdowns that the Cowboys do. The Packers are a young team with a bright future, but San Francisco is one of the league's most well-rounded and dominant teams. Their offense can score points in bunches and their defense can hold Green Bay to a much lower number than Dallas was able to. I think the two weeks of rest does them some good as well.
Score Prediction: 49ers 30 Packers 21
3 Confidence Points - #1 Baltimore over #4 Houston
This could almost be a copy-and-paste of the 49ers/Packers analysis: Super Bowl favorite collides with young, ahead of schedule team. CJ Stroud dazzled in his inaugural playoff start, becoming the youngest quarterback to ever win a playoff game in the Super Bowl era, and the Texans as a whole seemed unaffected by their inexperience. Baltimore finished the regular season with a record of 13-4, the best in the NFL, and probably could have gone 14-3 had it played its starters against the Steelers in Week 18. This game features two of the league's most dynamic quarterbacks: Stroud is going to win Rookie of the Year, and Lamar Jackson is going to win league MVP. But the X-factor is the talent around them, and Jackson is surrounded by more championship-caliber talent right now. Houston has already exceeded expectations by reaching this point, whereas Baltimore has bigger fish to fry. There are extremely bright days ahead for the Texans, but the Super Bowl window is open for the Ravens right now, and I think they win this one.
Score Prediction: Ravens 27 Texans 20
2 Confidence Points - #3 Detroit over #4 Tampa Bay
One of the things that makes this match up super intriguing is the fact that it features two quarterbacks who were former #1 overall picks, but whose original teams gave up on them, but who then found new homes they could thrive in when given a second chance. Jared Goff is having a career renaissance since joining Detroit two years ago while Baker Mayfield had the best season of his career in his first year in Tampa. The Lions are fresh off of ending a 32 year playoff win drought in emotional and dramatic fashion, and a large part of this game hinges on whether or not they can compartmentalize those emotions and quickly turn around and direct the focus to their round 2 opponent. For Tampa, they have already exceeded expectations getting this far in the first year of the post-Tom-Brady era, but that shouldn't make them satisfied or complacent. Even though the Bucs enter as the underdog, their roster still includes a great deal of championship experience, whereas the majority of Detroit's roster is in uncharted territory. And it's also worth mentioning that Tampa's defense has only allowed 9 points over the last 8 quarters, but to be fair the two opponents were the worst team in the NFL (Carolina) and then a reeling Philadelphia team that just wanted to be put out of its misery. And almost all of Tampa's explosive offensive plays last weekend can also be attributed to bad tackling by the Eagles. But we also have to factor in the homefield advantage here, because Detroit's stadium will be absolutely rocking. It's only their second home playoff game in 30 years and their first time in the divisional round since the early 90's with a spot in the conference championship game on the line. I get the feeling any home playoff game in Detroit will be super dramatic and come down to the wire, and I think Tampa's experience and veteran leadership makes it close, but I think this Lions team is having a special season and continually finds a way and I think their journey continues at least 1 more week.
Score Prediction: Lions 24 Bucs 22
1 Confidence Point - #2 Buffalo over #3 Kansas City
The NFL hasn't had a back-to-back champion since the 2003 & 2004 Patriots, and I think that drought continues another year. Despite how great they are, the Chiefs have lacked consistency over the season and have shown that they cannot always be trusted, whereas the Bills have won 6 straight down the stretch and are playing the best football of their season right now. Patrick Mahomes has gotten the better of Josh Allen twice in the playoffs, the most recent of which was a controversial overtime game prior to recent rule changes where the Chiefs won the coin toss and went down the field and scored to end the game (both teams now are guaranteed a chance to have the ball in overtime). The two teams also played a controversial game in the regular season, where the Chiefs had a go-ahead touchdown late in the game overturned by an offsides penalty which ultimately helped the Bills win. This has become a really good rivalry over the past few seasons, where the Bills had some regular season success but the Chiefs would ultimately get the last laugh in the playoffs. But this year feels different. The Bills have had their backs against the wall the past several weeks and now seem to be thriving off of the fact that everyone else is finally in the same position, whereas the Chiefs were the beneficiary of one of the NFL's weakest divisions and never really had their playoff hopes in jeopardy. The previous two playoff meetings between the teams were in Kansas City, but this time it's in Buffalo. Bills Mafia is going to be electric and thirsty for revenge, and it's likely freezing weather and snow could be involved. How Mahomes & co. deal with road games in hostile environments will be interesting to see, as almost every other year the road to the Super Bowl has gone through Kansas City. But this just feels like Josh Allen's turn. They're at home, it's a revenge game, and Buffalo is red hot. I genuinely believe having their backs against the wall since midseason and having to scratch and claw their way into the playoffs made the team stronger and brought them together. It always felt like if Buffalo were to ever win a Super Bowl, that journey would involve finally beating Kansas City, and the stars are aligning for that to happen this year.
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