NFL Wild Card Weekend Predictions

 

     "It's the mostttt wonderful timeeeee of the yearrr"! Don't get me wrong, I'm sad like everyone else that the Christmas season has come to an end, but the silver lining is always that it typically marks the beginning of the NFL playoffs. After 18 weeks of the regular season, we finally have a bracket with 14 remaining hopefuls, who will play win-or-go-home games over the next month that will help us ultimately crown a Super Bowl Champion. 

     Let's take a look at the teams who survived the regular season and are still standing:

     The Baltimore Ravens are back in after finishing with a league-best record of 13-4. QB Lamar Jackson will likely win MVP, but the Ravens have never been past the 2nd round with him. Is this the year they finally break through? And will head coach John Harbaugh win the Super Bowl in the same year his younger brother Jim led Michigan to a National Title in college football?

     The San Francisco 49ers are back as the top team in the NFC. Last season ended one win short of the Super Bowl when Brock Purdy was forced to leave the conference championship game with an elbow injury. With Purdy healthy again, can the 49ers go all the way this time?

     The Buffalo Bills won their final 5 games to secure the 2 seed in the AFC. The Bills spent the majority of the season on the outside looking in of the playoff picture, but played their best football down the stretch with their backs against the wall. Is this finally the year they avenge the heartbreak of 4 straight Super Bowl losses in the 90s and win the organization's first ever championship?

     The Dallas Cowboys are back as the 2 seed in the NFC, finishing with a record of 12-5. The Cowboys have a tragic history of playoff failures and haven't gotten past the 2nd round since 1996. This is arguably their best team since then, is this the year they reverse the curse and make a deep run?

     The Kansas City Chiefs enter the playoffs as the defending Super Bowl Champions. The Chiefs' regular season had its ups and downs, but can Mahomes, Kelce, and this veteran group of champions elevate their play once again when it matters most in pursuit of a 3rd title?

     The Detroit Lions waited 30 long grueling years but are hosting their first playoff game since 1994. After a long and painful stretch of losing seasons and disappointment, is it finally the Lions' time?

     The Houston Texans were one of the biggest surprises of the season, winning the AFC South with a rookie QB and rookie head coach. Can the team overcome the youth and inexperience and conjure up a few more surprises?

     The Tampa Bay Buccaneers proved they could still reach the playoffs even without the GOAT leading the way. Can Tampa's combination of veterans from the 2021 Super Bowl team and new faces help them silence more doubters?

     The Cleveland Browns overcame injuries to FOUR different quarterbacks and still made the playoffs thanks to an elite defense, great coaching, and way better than expected QB play from Joe Flacco, who came out of retirement to fill Cleveland's need. Can the Browns continue to lean on their defense and 39 year old unretired QB to reach the organization's first ever Super Bowl?

     The Philadelphia Eagles are trying to get back to the Super Bowl after finishing as the runner up last season, falling to the Chiefs off of a last-second field goal as time expired. The Eagles started 10-1, but then lost 5 of their final 6. Can this talented group who has done it before figure things out and reach a second straight Super Bowl?

     The Miami Dolphins are back in the playoffs, despite letting the AFC East slip through their fingers to Buffalo after leading the division almost the entirety of the season. The narrative is that Miami is flashy and explosive, but lacks the toughness and grit required to defeat the league's elite teams. Can the Dolphins dig a little deeper and ride their high-flying offense to playoff success?

     The Los Angeles Rams return to the playoffs as a Wild Card after missing out last season but winning it all two years ago. With several key pieces still in tact from the 2022 Super Bowl team, can this veteran group get one more shot at a title before father time catches up with an aging core?

     The Pittsburgh Steelers snuck into the Big Dance in the final week of the season after beating Baltimore's back ups and by way of Jacksonville's choke against Tennessee. It's often never pretty, but the Steelers continually find ways to win games and have winning seasons. Can they continue that trend and make an unexpected playoff run?

     And lastly, the Green Bay Packers found a way back in Year 1 of the Post-Aaron Rodgers era, winning 6 of their final 8 games to overcome a 3-6 start. Can these new-look Packers continue to ride the hot hand and restore the historic franchise to it's glory and winning ways? 

     Now that the stage is finally set, it's time to look at this week's match ups and predict some winners. As a reminder, the Ravens and 49ers are chillen like villains this weekend, the reward they rightfully earned by being the two best teams in the regular season and earning the #1 seeds in their respective conferences. The other 12 teams must earn their way to the second round by winning this weekend.

     As a fun way of organizing, I'm going to do this ESPN Pick-Em style, by ordering my confidence level of each game from 6 to 1 (6 is most confident, 1 is biggest toss-up). So here we go:

6 Confidence Points: #2 Buffalo over #7 Pittsburgh

 Of the 6 games this weekend this one feels like the biggest mismatch. Despite finishing 10-7 and making the playoffs, the Steelers actually have a point differential of -20 (i.e., over those 17 games, their opponents have outscored them by 20 points). Translation: Pittsburgh's wins have been close and losses have been large and may not be as good as their record indicates. They probably don't win the Baltimore game (and thus would not make the playoffs) had the Ravens played their starters, and to make matters worse they lost Edge rusher TJ Watt to a Grade 3 MCL sprain. Watt is the anchor of the defense and a former Defensive Player of the Year award winner, so his absence will be a massive one and make it challenging for the Steelers to slow down Josh Allen and the Bills offense. The majority of Pittsburgh's wins come by playing good enough defense to give the offense just enough chances to score just enough points. But without Watt, Buffalo should be able to move the ball effectively and Pittsburgh's offense won't be able to keep pace. The Bills enter this game with all the momentum and the homefield advantage (in what could be cold/rainy/snowy) and their talent will be too much for Pittsburgh.

Score Prediction: Bills 30 Steelers 13

5 Confidence Points: #2 Dallas over #7 Green Bay

I'm slightly less confident in this pick due to Dallas' history of playoff chokes as well as thinking Green Bay is slightly better than Pittsburgh, but I'm still pretty confident the Cowboys will prevail. It's a fun match up of two of the NFL's oldest and most historic franchises and largest fanbases who have met several times in the playoffs over the years. But much like the Buffalo/Pittsburgh match up, Dallas is a legitimate Super Bowl contender whereas Green Bay is just happy to be here. The Cowboys are undefeated at home this season and I don't expect that to change hosting a Green Bay team still adjusting to life without Aaron Rodgers. Jordan Love has done a commendable job replacing him and probably is their present and future, but I don't believe he's going to keep up in a shootout against a veteran team in his first ever playoff game. On the flip side, I think Dallas' offense will feast against Green Bay's defense and have no issues moving the ball and scoring points. The Cowboys need 2 wins to reach the NFC Championship game for the first time since the '90s, they'll get the first one this weekend.

Score Prediction: Cowboys 34 Packers 20

4 Confidence Points: #3 Chiefs over #6 Dolphins

For these next 4 games, I think either team could end up winning, but I'm entrusting the defending champs at home with my 4-pointer. I get that they've had their struggles this season, but I think people are too quick to write them off and may be overlooking them. I still have faith that Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs is a different animal, as are head coach Andy Reid and tight end Travis Kelce, and amidst the offense's stuggles, the defense has been one of the best in the NFL. Both teams have 11-6 records, but the caveat is that 10 of the Dolphins' 11 wins come against teams with losing records, with the lone exception being the Christmas Eve win over Dallas. The Chiefs are more battle tested and have proven before that they can win in the playoffs and make Super Bowl runs. The homefield advantage may be a significant factor as well, with the kickoff temperature expected to be 7 degrees, with below-zero wind chills. Somehow Miami, who plays in the warmest city in the NFL, will need to adapt. Unlike other aforementioned underdogs, Miami does have an offense loaded with weapons like Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Raheem Mostert that can score points quickly and in bunches. They could keep pace with the Chiefs in a shootout or if KC's offensive struggles continue they could find themselves in trouble. But I think Kansas City's defense does enough to slow the Dolphins down and Mahomes and the offense make enough plays to help the Chiefs advance on a freezing January night.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 24 Dolphins 20

3 Confidence Points: #3 Detroit over #6 LA Rams

Probably the best storyline of the weekend, not just because it's the first Lions home playoff game in 30 years, but also because it features two quarterbacks who were traded for one another in 2021. At the time, Matt Stafford, a former #1 overall pick from Detroit, was a great QB on a struggling Lions team and Jared Goff, a former #1 overall pick by the Rams, was a mediocre QB on a Rams team that was loaded at every other position. The Rams felt they were a QB away from winning immediately and the Lions wanted to accelerate their rebuild, so the Rams received Stafford and the Lions received Goff and a collection of draft picks. And ultimately it worked out for both sides. The Rams would go on to win the Super Bowl that season, and the Lions would build the team to a Super Bowl contender over the next few seasons. And now their paths intertwine once again, this time in a win-or-go-home game. For Stafford it's a homecoming, for Goff it's a chance for revenge. The Rams have been a trendy upset pick by the public, but my gut feels like the Lions do end up finding a way. Their fans have waited a long time for this and head coach Dan Campbell has worked tirelessly to change the culture there. The Rams had their fun two years ago, Goff gets revenge and Detroit sets up a rematch with Dallas of the game a few weeks ago that ended off of a controversial call.

Score Prediction: Lions 28 Rams 27

2 Confidence Points: #5 Philadelphia over #4 Tampa

This is one of my lowest confidence ratings because I truly have no confidence in either team. After jumping out to a 10-1 start, the Eagles lost 5 of their final 6 and were one of the worst teams in football over the final 6 weeks. Tampa isn't exactly exuding confidence either, failing to score a touchdown last week against the worst team in football in a win-or-go-home game. It's a hard game to pick because both teams have playoff/championship experience on their rosters, and on paper the Eagles should have more talent but they're also reeling whereas Tampa played their way into the playoff by winning 5 of their final 6, albeit not against the best competition (they are 1-5 against teams that made the playoffs). Momentum entering the playoffs definitely matters, but I do think this is a winnable game for Philly if they can elevate their play now that the stakes are higher. I do think Baker Mayfield comes out motivated and that Tampa as a whole is fired up by the home crowd and wants to prove that even without Tom Brady they can be a force to be reckoned with. But I'm going to (very cautiously) trust that the Eagles figure things out, at least enough so to get by a mediocre Tampa team.

Score Prediction: Eagles 23 Bucs 17

1 Confidence Point: #5 Browns over #4 Texans

What makes this match up fascinating is that it features the youngest starting QB in the NFL and the oldest starting QB in the NFL. CJ Stroud, the 2nd overall pick in this year's NFL draft, is a 22 years old Wonderkid and is having one of the best rookie seasons we have ever witnessed. On the flip side, Joe Flacco's career was believed to be over until the Browns coaxed him out of retirement, but the extra rest seemed to do the 16 year veteran some good as he returned a better version of himself than we saw in the final couple years prior to his initial retirement. That same experience gap can be found in comparing the head coaches. The Texans hired first year head coach DeMeco Ryans this offseason, formerly a defensive coordinator for the 49ers and before beginning his coaching career a longtime linebacker of the Texans. Ryans & Stroud are only the 5th rookie QB/head coach combination ever to reach the playoffs. For the Browns, Kevin Stefanski is in his 4th season with the team and is the current frontrunner to win coach of the year, largely for his leadership and efforts in keeping the team afloat and leading them to the playoffs despite all the QB injuries. In addition to taking Stroud with the 2nd overall pick, the Texans also traded up for the 3rd overall pick where they selected Will Anderson, a linebacker from Alabama. It makes total sense given Ryans' background and Anderson probably reminds him of a younger version of himself, and Anderson has done a good job for Houston, but I'm pointing it out because it further illustrates Houston's youth and reliance on young talent. But in situations like this, I normally ride with experience. The playoffs are a different animal, as is Cleveland's defense, and I think Houston's inexperience will play a factor.

Score Prediction: Browns 22 Texans 19